• SLV - Nov 25 201420141125
  • $SILVER - Nov 25 201420141125
  • $GOLD - Nov 24 201420141124
  • GLD - Nov 24 201420141124
  • SIL - Nov 19 201420141119
  • KOL - Nov 19 201420141119
  • GDX - Nov 19 201420141119
  • CORN - Nov 17 201420141117
  • ANR - Nov 17 201420141117
  • VHI - Oct 10 201420141010
  • PWE - Oct 10 201420141010
  • NLY - Oct 10 201420141010
  • X - Sep 04 201420140904
  • NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • AUY - Aug 12 201420140812
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • TNK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • ALIAF - Jun 13 201420140613
  • TRX - May 16 201420140516
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • ANH - Mar 03 201420140303
  • JO - Feb 24 201420140224
  • $COFFEE - Feb 24 201420140224
  • NMO - Feb 18 201420140218
  • JPI - Feb 18 201420140218
  • FFC - Feb 18 201420140218
  • AGNC - Feb 14 201420140214


Long-Term Trades- Completed

The “Long-term Trades- Completed” category lists trade ideas from the Long-term Trades category that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Long-term Trades- Active category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Long-Term Trades- Completed category for future reference.

Nov 172014
 
CORN daily Nov 17th

CORN daily Nov 17th

As I’ve spend some time away from my desk over the last few weeks, there are quite a few trade ideas in need of updating. As most of these trade updates are not time sensitive, email notifications will not be sent out on the remainder of the updates.

CORN (Corn ETF) hit the second price target last week. Although the odds of a pullback and/or consolidation around this level are elevated, T3 remains the final target at this time. As prices are still trading in close proximity to the Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. If holding out for T3, an objective stop would be below the 25 area (assuming an entry on the wedge breakout). Updated daily chart shown.

Sep 112014
 

As a follow-up to the previous post with the $CORN (Spot Corn Prices) weekly chart, below is the 5-minute chart of US Corn Futures as well as the weekly chart of CORN (Corn ETF), highlighting the current volume surge which is indicative of a selling climax.

click here to view the live, streaming chart of US Corn Futures. Once the page to Investing.com opens, from the top of the chart select: Instruments/More Instruments & then “U.S. Corn Futures” under the Commodities section.

Sep 112014
 

$CORN weekly Sept 11th

In the most recent update on the CORN (Corn ETF) Long-term Trade idea posted last week, it was stated that CORN had broken the 25.60 support level (below the recent consolidation range) which would likely open the door for a move down to the 340 major support level on $CORN (spot corn prices). Since the original post on the CORN trade idea back on July 28th, I had highlighted two likely scenarios for $CORN: either a bounce from around where $CORN was trading at the time OR a continued move down to the 340 level in which not only bring corn prices down to a key long-term support level and that we would also likely have strong bullish divergences in place on the weekly PPO when/if prices got there.

Although the chart of $CORN (spot prices) is an end-0f-day (EOD) chart, not updated until after the market close each day, I’ve been watching US Corn futures today and so far they kissed a low of 335.87 just a few minutes before I started working on this post and have since reversed sharply so far. Of course the day is still young but regardless of any short-term gyrations, we now have corn prices at key long-term support while extremely oversold (the weekly RSI 14  on $CORN was at an extreme level of 23.73 at yesterday’s close). We have the strong bullish divergences forming on the PPO as well as volume patterns on CORN (corn etf) that are indicative of a selling climax (ditto for WEAT, which I will cover under a separate update).

After stopping out the recent Active Long (swing trade) on CORN last week, I am going to add CORN back on as a new Long Trade idea. I also believe this is an objective area for a new entry or add-on to an existing position for the CORN Long-term Trade idea (investment) that was initiated in the July 28th post.

click here to view the live, annotated weekly chart of CORN

Sep 042014
 

The X (U.S. Steel Corp) Long-Term Trade has now hit the final target, T4 at 40.50, for a gain of 127% since entry. X is a good example of the difference between the regular Long Trade Ideas and the Long-term Trade Idea. As stated back in the original post on May 3, 2013 when X was added as an Active Long-term Trade: “… I am adding X as a Long-Term Trade Idea.  The Long-Term Trades category included trades that have relative long expected holding periods (measured in months or even years) and typically have price targets well into the double-digits.  Often these Long-Term Trade ideas will also appear in the normal Long Setups or Active Long Trades categories, which includes the bulk of the trade ideas on RSOTC.com.  Most of those trades are swing trades with an expected holding period which can be expected to last days, week, or months but with a typical holding period of around 6 weeks or so.”

Consider booking full profits at this time (X has actually now surpassed the final target and is trading well above T4 now at 40.76 as I type) as the R/R no longer warrants remaining long in this trade. Although not all Long-term trade ideas are successful or reach triple-digit gains, X is a good example of the difference between the typical swing trade ideas and the Long-term Trade ideas shared on RSOTC. This trade took 16 months to play out and like all Long-term trade ideas, patience and relatively wide stops are required for such trades with above average holding periods and return potential. The previous & updated weekly charts are posted in chronological order below for a quick visual how this trade played out. (note: T4 was added as the final target back on Sept 18, 2013 at the time the first target was hit).

Aug 292014
 

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM

 

Aug 222014
 
VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

The VHI (Valhi Inc) long trade has now hit the second price target, T2 at 7.72, for a gain of 40.4%. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. As mentioned earlier, this recent move higher has been confirmed on volume with this most recent sharp move on increased volume actually starting the day before this bullish article from Zachs Equity Research was published. T4 remains the final target for now but again, consider at least raising stops to protect profits if holding out for T3 and/or T4. Longer-term traders might consider a stop below the lows put in earlier this month while more active traders might prefer more aggressive stops.

This 4-year, 2-day period chart shows the track record on VHI with 3 out of the 4 trades (including this one) being successful and all three producing gains well into the double-digits. The first short trade in early 2012 hit the 3rd & final target for a 41.3% gain in less than 3 months and reversed sharply upon reaching the final target level. The second & last trade on VHI, also a short trade, was initiated in early 2013 and hit the second target (T2) for a 19.7% gain and continued to fall about a third of the way to T3 before reversing.  In late May, VHI was added as a speculative/aggressive long trade which was stopped out in June. VHI was once again added as an aggressive long entry on the breakout above 5.50 in late June and still looks promising from a longer-term perspective although the stock is quite overbought at this time.

Aug 222014
 

After falling mere pennies shy of T2 back on July 7th, VHI is once again making a run at that resistance/target level, coming within 4 cents of T2 earlier today while trading volumes have been increasing lately (a bullish sign). A solid break and close above T2 would open the door for a move to the 3rd & possibly the 4th & final target soon.

There really aren’t many new developments to report on the markets or with the Long Trade ideas other than the fact that I plan to move to the PWE long trade to the Completed Trades category as it had exceeded its previously suggested stop (both a solid move & close below 7.40) the day after the last update on Aug 4th. All trade ideas, winners or losers, are updated when removed for archiving purposes but I need to post the PWE trade removal under a separately tagged post for categorical purposes (email notifications will not be sent as that will be an administrative & not a time-sensitive post). There are also several Active Short Trades that I plan to remove as they have either exceeded a suggested stop or no longer look compelling from an R/R perspective. Those closed trades will be sent out in a single post with any relevant notes on the individual trades & an email notification will be sent when posted.

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

Other than the trade updates, I’m still watching GLD closely and so far, so good as GLD has found support just above the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern & the horizontal support zone posted on the 4-hour chart yesterday. My expectation remains that the near-term downtrend in gold prices will reverse soon with a resumption of the intermediate-term uptrend but we’ll most likely have to wait until next week to see if that is the case. As mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, my primary focus & positioning at this time is long gold & the mining sector in anticipation for the next major leg up (although I will start taking defensive measures/reducing my holdings should gold prices break the aforementioned support levels). Although I’m also positioned long with several other individual stocks and ETF, such as select commodity related ETFs,  my overall positioning remains net short with a overweight on the regional bank sector & select financial stocks but as also mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, I do not plan to any more short exposure until/unless prices move back below the upper-most resistance levels (now support) covered in that post. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions regarding any of the Active Trades or Setups listed on the site at this time.

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