• SLV - Oct 20 201420141020
  • $SILVER - Oct 20 201420141020
  • $GOLD - Oct 20 201420141020
  • GLD - Oct 20 201420141020
  • ANR - Oct 20 201420141020
  • VHI - Oct 10 201420141010
  • PWE - Oct 10 201420141010
  • NLY - Oct 10 201420141010
  • GDX - Oct 08 201420141008
  • KOL - Sep 25 201420140925
  • X - Sep 04 201420140904
  • NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • AUY - Aug 12 201420140812
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • SIL - Jul 18 201420140718
  • TNK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • ALIAF - Jun 13 201420140613
  • TRX - May 16 201420140516
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • ANH - Mar 03 201420140303
  • JO - Feb 24 201420140224
  • $COFFEE - Feb 24 201420140224
  • NMO - Feb 18 201420140218
  • JPI - Feb 18 201420140218
  • FFC - Feb 18 201420140218
  • AGNC - Feb 14 201420140214

Long-Term Trades- Completed

The “Long-term Trades- Completed” category lists trade ideas from the Long-term Trades category that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Long-term Trades- Active category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Long-Term Trades- Completed category for future reference.

Sep 042014

The X (U.S. Steel Corp) Long-Term Trade has now hit the final target, T4 at 40.50, for a gain of 127% since entry. X is a good example of the difference between the regular Long Trade Ideas and the Long-term Trade Idea. As stated back in the original post on May 3, 2013 when X was added as an Active Long-term Trade: “… I am adding X as a Long-Term Trade Idea.  The Long-Term Trades category included trades that have relative long expected holding periods (measured in months or even years) and typically have price targets well into the double-digits.  Often these Long-Term Trade ideas will also appear in the normal Long Setups or Active Long Trades categories, which includes the bulk of the trade ideas on RSOTC.com.  Most of those trades are swing trades with an expected holding period which can be expected to last days, week, or months but with a typical holding period of around 6 weeks or so.”

Consider booking full profits at this time (X has actually now surpassed the final target and is trading well above T4 now at 40.76 as I type) as the R/R no longer warrants remaining long in this trade. Although not all Long-term trade ideas are successful or reach triple-digit gains, X is a good example of the difference between the typical swing trade ideas and the Long-term Trade ideas shared on RSOTC. This trade took 16 months to play out and like all Long-term trade ideas, patience and relatively wide stops are required for such trades with above average holding periods and return potential. The previous & updated weekly charts are posted in chronological order below for a quick visual how this trade played out. (note: T4 was added as the final target back on Sept 18, 2013 at the time the first target was hit).

Aug 292014

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM


Aug 222014
VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

The VHI (Valhi Inc) long trade has now hit the second price target, T2 at 7.72, for a gain of 40.4%. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. As mentioned earlier, this recent move higher has been confirmed on volume with this most recent sharp move on increased volume actually starting the day before this bullish article from Zachs Equity Research was published. T4 remains the final target for now but again, consider at least raising stops to protect profits if holding out for T3 and/or T4. Longer-term traders might consider a stop below the lows put in earlier this month while more active traders might prefer more aggressive stops.

This 4-year, 2-day period chart shows the track record on VHI with 3 out of the 4 trades (including this one) being successful and all three producing gains well into the double-digits. The first short trade in early 2012 hit the 3rd & final target for a 41.3% gain in less than 3 months and reversed sharply upon reaching the final target level. The second & last trade on VHI, also a short trade, was initiated in early 2013 and hit the second target (T2) for a 19.7% gain and continued to fall about a third of the way to T3 before reversing.  In late May, VHI was added as a speculative/aggressive long trade which was stopped out in June. VHI was once again added as an aggressive long entry on the breakout above 5.50 in late June and still looks promising from a longer-term perspective although the stock is quite overbought at this time.

Aug 222014

After falling mere pennies shy of T2 back on July 7th, VHI is once again making a run at that resistance/target level, coming within 4 cents of T2 earlier today while trading volumes have been increasing lately (a bullish sign). A solid break and close above T2 would open the door for a move to the 3rd & possibly the 4th & final target soon.

There really aren’t many new developments to report on the markets or with the Long Trade ideas other than the fact that I plan to move to the PWE long trade to the Completed Trades category as it had exceeded its previously suggested stop (both a solid move & close below 7.40) the day after the last update on Aug 4th. All trade ideas, winners or losers, are updated when removed for archiving purposes but I need to post the PWE trade removal under a separately tagged post for categorical purposes (email notifications will not be sent as that will be an administrative & not a time-sensitive post). There are also several Active Short Trades that I plan to remove as they have either exceeded a suggested stop or no longer look compelling from an R/R perspective. Those closed trades will be sent out in a single post with any relevant notes on the individual trades & an email notification will be sent when posted.

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

Other than the trade updates, I’m still watching GLD closely and so far, so good as GLD has found support just above the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern & the horizontal support zone posted on the 4-hour chart yesterday. My expectation remains that the near-term downtrend in gold prices will reverse soon with a resumption of the intermediate-term uptrend but we’ll most likely have to wait until next week to see if that is the case. As mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, my primary focus & positioning at this time is long gold & the mining sector in anticipation for the next major leg up (although I will start taking defensive measures/reducing my holdings should gold prices break the aforementioned support levels). Although I’m also positioned long with several other individual stocks and ETF, such as select commodity related ETFs,  my overall positioning remains net short with a overweight on the regional bank sector & select financial stocks but as also mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, I do not plan to any more short exposure until/unless prices move back below the upper-most resistance levels (now support) covered in that post. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions regarding any of the Active Trades or Setups listed on the site at this time.

Aug 192014
ANR daily Aug 19th

ANR daily Aug 19th

ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) has reached the first profit target, T1 at 4.08, for a 13.3% profit. ANR was added directly as an Active Long Trade just over a week ago and has moved up sharply since, allowing the opportunity to either book quick profits here (full or partial) or raise stops to protect profits, for those holding out for the next target. T2 (4.70) remains the final target at this time although additional targets may be added to the ANR trade depending on how the coal stocks trade going forward (see Thurday’s post on ANR for the notes & charts of the coal sector).

I just completed a comprehensive video that covers my three main themes for 2014 & likely heading into 2015 including the gold & silver mining sector, an overview of the US equity markets, and select commodities including the agricultural and the coal sector. The video is currently being processed & uploaded and should be published within the next 30 minutes although I also have a technician en route to repair some issues with my internet connection that could take me off-line for a while today in which case the video will be posted later this afternoon.

FYI- In addition to ANR hitting the first target today, another coal stock trade setup, ACI (Arch Coal) has triggered an entry today. Click here to view the previous notes & live chart on ACI.

Aug 122014
GLD 120 minute Aug 12th

GLD 120 minute Aug 12th

I haven’t had much to say regarding gold & gold mining stocks as nothing technical has changed since the highlighted bullish falling wedge breakout in GLD last week on the 60 & 120 minute time frames. That was the first bullish catalyst that I was looking for and as I’ve repeatedly stated, my primary focus is on gold prices as the miners will ultimately follow the metal.

Although we did get an impulsive breakout of that 60-120 minute bullish falling wedge, there is still some work to be done in order to solidify the longer-term bullish case for gold & the mining stocks. From here, GLD will either go on to break above the July 17th reaction high of 127.40 (bullish) and then, hopefully, go on to take out the July 10thth high of 129.21 and ultimately the March 14th reaction high of 133.69, which would be extremely bullish & most likely confirm that a new cyclical bull market in gold is indeed underway.The bearish case would have GLD making a solid break below the aforementioned 123 support level and even worse, the June 3rd reaction low of 119.42, which would open the door for a retest and possible break of the all-important mid & late 2013 double bottom.

Regarding my upside targets for the exposure that I added back to gold & the mining sector last week, here are my replies to a couple of recent inquired on both the miners as well as a specific trade (AUY):

Q: What are your GDX targets?

A: (from last week)- Potentially much higher. This was my buy-back-in for the next leg up in the metal & miners this week. Given, there is still a lot of technical work to be done, the first major step being a break above the July 10th highs in both GLD & GDX. As of now, my main focus is on loss mitigation (stops) if my analysis looks to be wrong & the metals & miners look like they might go much lower. The a break of the recently highlighted support levels on GLD & SLV would most certainly be bearish. Targets TBD later, for now just watching the price action in gold & silver.

Q: AUY appears to be breaking out. What are your target(s)?

A: Thanks for asking as you just made me realized that I never updated my stockcharts.com chart on AUY from the Live Charts page. I just updated that chart which you can view in the link below or via the Live Charts page. These are the same target levels that were posted on the April 16th entry for the trade, which I still think are valid. I plan to add some suggested sell (price) levels but for now, the horizontal lines mark the resistance levels for the targets.



Aug 072014

ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) is one of several long-side trade ideas currently on my watchlist that are showing some bullish developments on both the daily & weekly time frames. With many of the coal stock firmly entrenched in a bear market, these should be considered counter-trend, fairly aggressive trades at this time. For those who may have an interest in the coal stocks, to help adjust position sizing for each trade idea in order to account for the total target exposure to the sector, I currently have six coal stocks on my watchlist that are at or close to triggering an entry that may also be added as Trade Setups and/or Active Trades soon. In addition to the potentially bullish developments on those individual coal stocks, the DJ US Coal Index may be forming a right shoulder of an Inverse Head & Shoulders bottoming pattern following a divergent low at the formation of the head.

ANR will be added as long entry here around 3.60 following yesterday’s breakout on average volume. Suggested stops for those targeting T1 (4.08) would be below 3.40 while longer-term traders targeting T2 or higher (additional upside targets likely to be added) might consider a stop below 3.10 as well as considering a scale-in strategy to allow for a possible backtest of the downtrend line. The last trade on ANR was entered on a break of this downtrend & hit T2 for a 34% on Nov 4th. ANR is once again being added as both a typical swing trade (Active Long) and a Long-Term Trade idea on this breakout. However, longer-term & more conservative swing traders might wait for a solid weekly close (end of day Friday) before establishing a position.     click here to view the live daily chart of ANR     click here to view the live weekly chart of ANR     click here to view the live weekly chart of the DJ US Coal Index