• SIL - Jul 18 201420140718
  • GDX - Jul 18 201420140718
  • KOL - Jul 17 201420140717
  • SLV - Jul 10 201420140710
  • $SILVER - Jul 10 201420140710
  • $GOLD - Jul 10 201420140710
  • GLD - Jul 10 201420140710
  • EGO - Jul 10 201420140710
  • SSRI - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NLY - Jul 03 201420140703
  • KGC - Jun 13 201420140613
  • HMY - Jun 13 201420140613
  • HL - Jun 13 201420140613
  • AUY - Jun 13 201420140613
  • ALIAF - Jun 13 201420140613
  • TRX - May 16 201420140516
  • NEM - May 16 201420140516
  • PAAS - Mar 20 201420140320
  • AEM - Mar 18 201420140318
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • ANH - Mar 03 201420140303
  • JO - Feb 24 201420140224
  • $COFFEE - Feb 24 201420140224
  • NMO - Feb 18 201420140218
  • JPI - Feb 18 201420140218
  • FFC - Feb 18 201420140218
  • AGNC - Feb 14 201420140214


Long-Term Trades- Completed

The “Long-term Trades- Completed” category lists trade ideas from the Long-term Trades category that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Long-term Trades- Active category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Long-Term Trades- Completed category for future reference.

Jul 102014
 
EGO stock chart

EGO Third Price Target Hit

The EGO (Eldorado Gold) Long-Term Trade idea hit the third profit target (T3) yesterday, as well as today, for a 36% gain from entry. As discussed in the mining sector video posted earlier today, the odds for a pullback in the mining stocks are quite elevated at this time and that holds true for EGO as well.

Not only are reactions off the price target levels typical in general but EGO is also coming off overbought levels (on the daily RSI) not seen since the stock peaked in Sept 2012 as highlighted on the left of this updated daily chart. I don’t expect anything remotely close to the 46% plunge in the stock that immediately followed that previous similar overbought condition, as that one had occurred during the early stages of the recent bear market in the mining sector whereas this time around, the stock is most likely in the early stages of a new bull market.

I’ve also added an very steep uptrend line on which prices current sit precariously on top of. Any solid break or daily close below that trendline would likely spark a correction which could provide another objective entry in the near future.  T5 remains the final long-term target at this time but again, the odds of at least a decent correction before EGO gets there is quite elevated at this time. Additional details on this trade, including the longer-term bullish case, can be viewed in the Gold & Silver Trade Ideas video posted on June 13th.

Click here to view the live, annotated chart of EGO.

Jul 032014
 

NLY (Annaly Capital Mgmt) is an Active Trade in the Growth & Income Trades category (descriptions of each trade category can be found at the top of their respective pages). The trade was first added back on August 19th of last year at a price of 10.68 and since then, this trade has hit some near-term profit targets where partial profit taking was suggested as well a stops being raised. There were also additional objective potential entries or add-ons posted since the original entry, not to mention a double-digit dividend yield paid out along the way (which reduces the cost basis of the trade by the amount of the dividends paid).

Such multiple entries, exits & adjustments  to position size make it extremely difficult to track the performance on some trades, particularly the Long-term trade ideas which are more conducive to trading around the target levels than the typical Long (swing) Trades. However, based on the previous entry levels and 11-15% yield on the stock since the original entry almost a year ago, NLY is still profitable although I do have my concerns about the position here. After forming some bearish divergences over the last few months, NLY has come under some selling pressure in recent trading sessions and is now approaching support as shown by the red uptrend line on this updated daily chart. Although the chart still looks constructive on the weekly time frame, any solid weekly close below the 10.50 area would hamper the longer-term bullish case for the stock. As such, longer-term traders or investor in this position might consider such a weekly close (below 10.50) as a final stop on a position. However, in order to protect profits on the current trade, NLY will be considered stopped out on a weekly close below the red uptrend line on this daily chart (currently below 10.93).

On a related note, I also have my concerns about the REIT sector in general ($DJUSRE & the IYR), which has broken below a primary uptrend line today after recently printing a divergent high (daily time frame). With NLY being a component of this sector, that is one more reason that I am tightening up the reins on this trade at this time.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NLY

Apr 082014
 

I received a couple of questions regarding the previously posted potential bear flag/bearish pennant formation on GDX and figured that they were worth passing along.

Q1:  I see the pattern you mentioned in your post. However, can it possibly be an ascending triangle (spanning over the last 10 days) with a target of $26 ? I am new to technical analysis and would appreciate if you could point out the flaw in my view.

A:  Yes, GDX could also be in the latter stages of an ascending triangle pattern if one were to use that 24.75 horizontal resistance line as the upper boundary of the pattern. However, ascending triangle patterns are typically bullish continuation patterns meaning that the pattern is formed immediately following a distinct uptrend. I will say, though, that I have seen both ascending & descending triangle patterns (the latter being a bearish continuation pattern) break in the opposite direction and when this happens, it often leads to a pretty powerful move. Maybe that’s because the majority of traders watching the pattern were caught off guard while positioned for a break in the expected direction (continuation of the prior trend).

Q2: Also did you actually mean $23.50 area target instead of $20.50 as mentioned in your post.

A: No. As ugly as that sounds, the measured target for the bearish pennant/flag pattern posted earlier would be around 20.00-20.50. To determine the target on a bearish pennant or bear flag pattern (both similar patterns & both are also continuation patterns) you simply take the distance of the flagpole and subtract it from the top of the last tag of the uppermost trendline. Keep in mind that there’s no need to pull out your calculator. I usually just draw a trendline marking the flagpole, then drag that trendline and place it on the correct point of the flag or pennant. In fact, the chart that I posted earlier & the one below are using log scaling. To get a more accurate pattern projection when using the trendline drap & drop method, arithmetic scaling is more accurate (giving a measure target of 20.00 on GDX right now, assuming that prices don’t move any higher within the pattern).  After identifying the measured target of the pattern, I like to align that “rough” target with the nearest horizontal support (or resistance) level and/or any key Fibonacci retracement levels to zero in on my own preferred target (which I have not done yet & only plan to do if & when the pattern breaks to the downside).

One a final note, the reason that I reduced exposure to the mining sector on the gap up today was exactly because of the conflicting or ambiguous technical posture of GDX at this time. If I can’t make a solid case to be long or short a position, then it’s only prudent to book some of all of the profits on that trade. I’d rather give it a couple of days to see how this current consolidation on the mining sector resolves itself and not risk getting caught on the wrong side of a sudden breakout from this trading range.

GDX bear flag scenario April 8th

GDX bear flag scenario April 8th

GDX ascending triangle scenario April 8th

GDX ascending triangle scenario April 8th

 

Apr 082014
 

GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) is indicated to gap back up to 24.75 resistance level which is also the top of this potential bearish pennant pattern. The 24.75 level is the first near-term target listed on the prior string of 15 minute charts.  If GDX can make a solid & sustained break above the 24.75 level, there is a thin zone up to the next near-term target of 25.20ish that is likely to be filled. However, should GDX once again turn down from this resistance level, as with the two recent failed attempts to take it out, that could send prices back down to the bottom of the bearish pennant. Should GDX break down from the pennant, the measure move on the pattern projects to around the 20.50 area. Personally, I plan to reduce exposure to the miners on the opening gap but may add back exposure should GDX make a solid break above the 24.75 level.

GDX 60 minute April 8th

GDX 60 minute April 8th

GDX 15 minute April 8th

GDX 15 minute April 8th

 

Apr 012014
 

I took the day off yesterday and will be out of the office most of today but just wanted to post an update on GDX (Gold Miners ETF). As per the update posted on Wednesday of last week, my alternative scenario still has GDX making one final thrust lower to kiss the 23.00 horizontal support level + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. My primary scenario still has GDX bottoming on Thursday and moving higher from there.

So far, yesterday’s move lower in the mining stocks closed to print a higher low in the sector so there’s a good chance that today will either see prices drop below last week’s low of 23.27 (and likely bring prices down to the 23.00 area) or the GDX starts moving higher in an attempt to take out Friday’s reaction high of 24.35, which would be bullish and likely propel prices towards the first near-term target of 24.70.  I still give only slight odds to my primary scenario & as such, continue to scale into the mining stock as this point vs. a full position.  Updated 15 minute & 60 minute charts below.

GDX 15 minute April 1st

GDX 15 minute April 1st

 

GDX 60 minute April 1st

GDX 60 minute April 1st

Mar 282014
 

GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) has broken above the downtrend line/bullish falling wedge pattern shown on the previously posted 15 minute chart. The updated 15 minute chart is posted below along with 3 potential near-term targets, for those only looking for a potential quick trade on the mining sector.

GDX 15 minute March 28th

GDX 15 minute March 28th

Mar 272014
 

SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF) is offering an objective long entry or add-on to an existing position as it backtest the primary downtrend line. SIL was one of the top picks in the mining sector added to the Live Chart page in December while the sector was bottoming. SIL went on to hit both the first target (downtrend line) and then hit and far exceeded the second target (T2) before reversing just shy of T3 (15.43). SIL has almost reached the 61.8% retracement of the strong run from the Dec lows to the Feb 24th high, which is near the lower-end of a healthy retracement for what could prove to be the initial leg of a new bull market (which of course, is still yet TBD but remains my preferred scenario at this time).  As such, a long entry or add-on around current levels with the appropriate stops below looks to offer an attractive R/R for swing traders and longer-term investors targeting T3 or T4.

Click here to view the live chart of SIL (silver miners ETF)

Click here to view the live chart of $SIVLER (spot silver prices)

SIL daily March 27th

SIL daily March 27th,