• SLV - Sep 02 201420140902
  • $GOLD - Sep 02 201420140902
  • GLD - Sep 02 201420140902
  • NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • $SILVER - Aug 26 201420140826
  • GDX - Aug 25 201420140825
  • VHI - Aug 22 201420140822
  • AUY - Aug 12 201420140812
  • X - Aug 01 201420140801
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • SIL - Jul 18 201420140718
  • TNK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • KOL - Jul 17 201420140717
  • NLY - Jul 03 201420140703
  • ALIAF - Jun 13 201420140613
  • TRX - May 16 201420140516
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • ANH - Mar 03 201420140303
  • JO - Feb 24 201420140224
  • $COFFEE - Feb 24 201420140224
  • NMO - Feb 18 201420140218
  • JPI - Feb 18 201420140218
  • FFC - Feb 18 201420140218
  • AGNC - Feb 14 201420140214


Long-Term Trades- Completed

The “Long-term Trades- Completed” category lists trade ideas from the Long-term Trades category that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Long-term Trades- Active category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Long-Term Trades- Completed category for future reference.

Aug 292014
 

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM

 

Aug 222014
 
VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

The VHI (Valhi Inc) long trade has now hit the second price target, T2 at 7.72, for a gain of 40.4%. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. As mentioned earlier, this recent move higher has been confirmed on volume with this most recent sharp move on increased volume actually starting the day before this bullish article from Zachs Equity Research was published. T4 remains the final target for now but again, consider at least raising stops to protect profits if holding out for T3 and/or T4. Longer-term traders might consider a stop below the lows put in earlier this month while more active traders might prefer more aggressive stops.

This 4-year, 2-day period chart shows the track record on VHI with 3 out of the 4 trades (including this one) being successful and all three producing gains well into the double-digits. The first short trade in early 2012 hit the 3rd & final target for a 41.3% gain in less than 3 months and reversed sharply upon reaching the final target level. The second & last trade on VHI, also a short trade, was initiated in early 2013 and hit the second target (T2) for a 19.7% gain and continued to fall about a third of the way to T3 before reversing.  In late May, VHI was added as a speculative/aggressive long trade which was stopped out in June. VHI was once again added as an aggressive long entry on the breakout above 5.50 in late June and still looks promising from a longer-term perspective although the stock is quite overbought at this time.

Aug 222014
 

After falling mere pennies shy of T2 back on July 7th, VHI is once again making a run at that resistance/target level, coming within 4 cents of T2 earlier today while trading volumes have been increasing lately (a bullish sign). A solid break and close above T2 would open the door for a move to the 3rd & possibly the 4th & final target soon.

There really aren’t many new developments to report on the markets or with the Long Trade ideas other than the fact that I plan to move to the PWE long trade to the Completed Trades category as it had exceeded its previously suggested stop (both a solid move & close below 7.40) the day after the last update on Aug 4th. All trade ideas, winners or losers, are updated when removed for archiving purposes but I need to post the PWE trade removal under a separately tagged post for categorical purposes (email notifications will not be sent as that will be an administrative & not a time-sensitive post). There are also several Active Short Trades that I plan to remove as they have either exceeded a suggested stop or no longer look compelling from an R/R perspective. Those closed trades will be sent out in a single post with any relevant notes on the individual trades & an email notification will be sent when posted.

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

Other than the trade updates, I’m still watching GLD closely and so far, so good as GLD has found support just above the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern & the horizontal support zone posted on the 4-hour chart yesterday. My expectation remains that the near-term downtrend in gold prices will reverse soon with a resumption of the intermediate-term uptrend but we’ll most likely have to wait until next week to see if that is the case. As mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, my primary focus & positioning at this time is long gold & the mining sector in anticipation for the next major leg up (although I will start taking defensive measures/reducing my holdings should gold prices break the aforementioned support levels). Although I’m also positioned long with several other individual stocks and ETF, such as select commodity related ETFs,  my overall positioning remains net short with a overweight on the regional bank sector & select financial stocks but as also mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, I do not plan to any more short exposure until/unless prices move back below the upper-most resistance levels (now support) covered in that post. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions regarding any of the Active Trades or Setups listed on the site at this time.

Aug 012014
 

The X (US Steel Corp) Active Long-term Trade has hit the third target (T3 at 32.25) for an 80.9% gain from entry. (The actual total return is considerably higher as the above average dividend yield has significantly reduced the cost basis on this trade since inception). T3 was hit on Wednesday on a sizable gap. As prices closed well over a point above the T3 level today, consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops according to your trading plan, on Monday if you have not done so already.

Also note from the updated weekly chart below that X has some substantial potential bearish divergences forming on the PPO & RSI although the ROC 57 remains in bull market territory. I might normally suggest booking full profits on a trade up well over 80% (dividend adjusted) and although I do believe the odds for a pullback before the next and final target, T4, is hit, the longer-term charts still look constructive & so X will remain an Active Long-term Trade for now. The previously posted weekly chart as well as the updated chart are listed in chronological order below for a quick visual reference on the trade. This 80%++ gain on X follows two previous trades on US Steel that were also very profitable, with this short trade on X closed out on May 18, 2012 for a 26% gain followed by this long trade on X closed out on Dec 17, 2012 for a 27% gain.

 

For those new to RSOTC, the Long-Term Trade category was added to the site back on June 13, 2012 with the entry of the STM (ST Microeclectronics NV) Long-Term Trade, which was closed out on Sept 14th for a 29.7% gain. Long-term Trades are longer-term trend trades or investment ideas that have the potential for significant returns over a longer-term period, typically several months or even a year or more. This category of trade ideas might be useful for the longer-term swing trader or investor looking for investment ideas to supplement their existing portfolio and prefers a less active, more hands-off approach to investing.

Jul 222014
 

The VHI (Valhi Inc) Active Long Trade appears to be breaking out of a bull flag continuation pattern today. VHI triggered a long entry on a break above the 5.50 resistance level on June 25th & is currently trading about 28% above that level after gaining about 40% before pulling back. That pullback, which was greatly needed in order to work off the extreme near-term overbought conditions, resulted in prices moving gradually lower on diminishing volume, which is what you want to see during a pullback or consolidation within a bullish trend. That pullback formed what appears to be a bull flag continuation pattern and today prices have broken above the pattern and have been building on those gains so far. The previous & updated 60 minute charts are posted below but the official profit targets remain as previous posted on the daily chart (click the VHI symbol tag at the bottom of this post to view all prior notes & charts on this trade).

I will say that I would prefer to see a considerable expansion of volume on the breakout of this pattern which so far, is not the case. However, price action comes first in my book, volume second, so for now I’m watching to see if VHI can take out the recent highs of 7.63 put in a place about two weeks ago. Such a move, especially if we start to see an increase in volume as the stock rises, would increase the odds of VHI moving up to at least the 8.10 resistance area, if not all the way to the 10.20ish area, which is about where the bull flag pattern projects to. As stated earlier, this is an very aggressive trade so as always, DYODD and consider adjusting position sizing to account for the above average risk & return potential.

Jul 102014
 
EGO stock chart

EGO Third Price Target Hit

The EGO (Eldorado Gold) Long-Term Trade idea hit the third profit target (T3) yesterday, as well as today, for a 36% gain from entry. As discussed in the mining sector video posted earlier today, the odds for a pullback in the mining stocks are quite elevated at this time and that holds true for EGO as well.

Not only are reactions off the price target levels typical in general but EGO is also coming off overbought levels (on the daily RSI) not seen since the stock peaked in Sept 2012 as highlighted on the left of this updated daily chart. I don’t expect anything remotely close to the 46% plunge in the stock that immediately followed that previous similar overbought condition, as that one had occurred during the early stages of the recent bear market in the mining sector whereas this time around, the stock is most likely in the early stages of a new bull market.

I’ve also added an very steep uptrend line on which prices current sit precariously on top of. Any solid break or daily close below that trendline would likely spark a correction which could provide another objective entry in the near future.  T5 remains the final long-term target at this time but again, the odds of at least a decent correction before EGO gets there is quite elevated at this time. Additional details on this trade, including the longer-term bullish case, can be viewed in the Gold & Silver Trade Ideas video posted on June 13th.

Click here to view the live, annotated chart of EGO.

Jul 032014
 

NLY (Annaly Capital Mgmt) is an Active Trade in the Growth & Income Trades category (descriptions of each trade category can be found at the top of their respective pages). The trade was first added back on August 19th of last year at a price of 10.68 and since then, this trade has hit some near-term profit targets where partial profit taking was suggested as well a stops being raised. There were also additional objective potential entries or add-ons posted since the original entry, not to mention a double-digit dividend yield paid out along the way (which reduces the cost basis of the trade by the amount of the dividends paid).

Such multiple entries, exits & adjustments  to position size make it extremely difficult to track the performance on some trades, particularly the Long-term trade ideas which are more conducive to trading around the target levels than the typical Long (swing) Trades. However, based on the previous entry levels and 11-15% yield on the stock since the original entry almost a year ago, NLY is still profitable although I do have my concerns about the position here. After forming some bearish divergences over the last few months, NLY has come under some selling pressure in recent trading sessions and is now approaching support as shown by the red uptrend line on this updated daily chart. Although the chart still looks constructive on the weekly time frame, any solid weekly close below the 10.50 area would hamper the longer-term bullish case for the stock. As such, longer-term traders or investor in this position might consider such a weekly close (below 10.50) as a final stop on a position. However, in order to protect profits on the current trade, NLY will be considered stopped out on a weekly close below the red uptrend line on this daily chart (currently below 10.93).

On a related note, I also have my concerns about the REIT sector in general ($DJUSRE & the IYR), which has broken below a primary uptrend line today after recently printing a divergent high (daily time frame). With NLY being a component of this sector, that is one more reason that I am tightening up the reins on this trade at this time.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NLY

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