The original short entry on GS (Goldman Sachs Group) was posted on Sept 24th while GS was backtesting the recently broken large bearish rising wedge pattern (orange) as show in the first (previous) chart below. Note how GS has been stair-stepping higher with the white minor uptrend lines with clearly diminishing momentum on each new minor uptrend. The next short entry or add-on will come on a break below this most recent uptrend line. Click here to view the live, annotated chart of GS.
Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. e.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.
Over the last couple of months, I’ve been working on building out the new Live Chart Links page with links to numerous live, annotated chart of various US & global stock indices, various sectors, commodities, fixed income instruments and market leading stocks. I will continue to add new chart links to that page going forward so check back from time to time and feel free to contact me if you have any suggestions for a specific chart to be added or notice that any of the trendlines or comments on the charts need to be updated.
I’m also working towards a goal of providing live chart links to as many of the trade ideas as possible, especially for the more promising trades, such as this P (Pandora Media Inc) short trade that was first mentioned in the Nov 19th Social Media Stocks Video. The live chart for the P short trade can be viewed by clicking here. At some point in the future, links to live charts on all the trade ideas might be located together under the respective categories below the Trading & Investments Ideas master category found at the menu bar toward the top of the site. Currently, trade ideas with a live, annotated chart will include a link to the live chart under each recent post. Static posts are also provided for a quick visual reference as well as a useful educational resource by providing a pictorial history of each trade. As always, all posts associated with a specific stock, index, or ETF can easily be referenced by using the Posts By Ticker Symbol drop-down box on the sidebar located on the home page. For those following a particular trade, either bookmark the live chart link (or save the chart as your own if you subscribe to StockCharts.com, checking back for any modifications or updated to the live chart from time to time) or you may continue to reference the recent posts on the trade as discussed above, where the live chart link will remain at least as long as the trade is still active.
HON will be added as an Active Short Trade here on this break below this large bearish rising wedge pattern. Targets are marked on this daily chart with the exact suggest target levels to follow. A suggested stop on a move above 89.60 (just above the recent highs) offers a R/R of about 3:1 to my current preferred target of the T2 zone (76.30-75.40). As always, stops should be set commensurate with one’s own risk tolerance, trading style and preferred profit target.
On an administrative note: I’m noticing quite a few potentially significant technical developments today (obviously bearish). As the frequency of chart & commentary postings will likely increase this week, the automatic email notifications feature will be suppressed for some of the non-time sensitive posts (email notifications on actionable trade ideas such as this will continue to be sent immediately upon publication). The new feature to opt in or out of notifications on specific categories should also be available by the end of this week as well. As such, those signed up to receive email notifications may want to periodically check the site for new updates in which notifications may not have been sent out.
YZC (Yanzhou Coal Mining C0) has pulled back to support & could provide an objective long entry or add-on. Consider a stop below the 9.10 area (or higher, based on your average cost). YZC was added as a Long Setup on Oct 21 with a buy trigger for only a partial position on a move over 10.75 (bringing to a full position if & when the downtrend line is cleared). The stock triggered an entry on Nov 21 but reversed a few days later and has now fallen to a key support level. Although one could add to an existing partial position here or establish a new entry, with a stop not far below, my preference is to hold off on adding any long exposure at this point as both the $RUT & XLK (and likely some other key sectors or indices) have broken those key uptrend lines highlighted earlier today. Also keep in mind that KOL (the coal sector ETF) still remains below key resistance. The updated daily chart of YZC (adjusted for dividends) shown or click here to view the live chart of YZC.
The LL (Lumber Liquidators Holdings) short trade has hit the first target of 91.25 for a gain of 18.2%. T2 at 71.72 remains my current final & preferred target although this trade may still be extended to the 49 area, should the trend indicators on the broad market start to roll over soon. Updated daily chart shown. Click here to view the live, annotated chart.
Admin note: A feature will soon be added to Right Side of the Chart allowing those subscribed to receive email notifications of new posts to select which specific categories they wish to receive email notifications on. For example, long-term swing traders and investors might choose to only receive notifications when a new Long-term Trade setup is posted while opting out of receiving notifications of completed trades, market analysis, etc… This new feature is expected to be rolled out within the next week.
The day before Thanksgiving, an update was made to the NLY (Annaly Capital Mgmt Inc) Growth & Income Trade. As the stock was poised to likely print a second consecutive weekly close below the 10.50ish weekly support (the initial suggested stop criteria), I wanted to highlight some potentially bullish developments on the charts before I left town for the holiday for those who might want to give their position a little more room. Since then, the stock did go on to break above the highlighted downtrend line, make a successful backtest and has begun to move impulsively higher over the last couple of trading sessions. In addition to the price breakout, we also now have the confirmed bullish crossover on the MACD that I was looking for as confirmation to the positive divergence that was forming on the MACD.
Therefore, NLY still remains an active Growth & Income Trade idea and with a current dividend yield of approximately 14% in addition to a 20% price appreciation if the current (revised) 2nd price target is hit, this mREIT looks to offer a very attractive R/R as a long-term swing trade opportunity with a stop below the 9.65 area (or higher, based on one’s average cost and trading style). For simplicity, I have updated the price targets to reflect an entry or add-on based on the most recent post.
NLY was originally posted as a long entry at a price 0f 10.68 back on Aug 19th and went on to gap above the 2nd price target of 12.12 for a 14.7% gain (at which point it was suggested to book partial profits and/or raise stops). This most recent move below that key long-term support level could very well prove to be a final stage flush out move providing a lasting base from which to launch a more sustain, healthy advance in NLY. Maybe, maybe not so make sure to set stops commensurate with your own risk tolerance/trading style if you already own or decide to take this trade. I continue to prefer a scale-in strategy with most of the Growth & Income and commodity related trade ideas as these are bottoming plays. Previous & updated daily charts shown below. Click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NLY.
CSIQ (Canadian Solar Inc) will trigger a short entry on a break below this rising wedge pattern. T2 is the current final & preferred target although this trade could be extended to T3 at 10.85, depending on how the charts of CSIQ, TAN (solar sector etf) and the broad markets develop going forward.
I also plan to put together a video covering the solar stocks today and possibly some additional videos or written commentaries (with static charts) on the coal sector and growth & income trade ideas, specifically the mREITs (mortgage REITs), some of which still look promising from a longer-term perspective. My commentary on the broad markets remains light as there really haven’t been any new developments lately. The US equity markets continue to make a slow-grind higher despite bearish divergences and extreme sentiment readings that continue to build although most key European markets have recently started moving sharply lower at key technical junctures. Several of those charts can be viewed on the Live Chart Links page.
ORLY (O’Reilly Automotive Inc) looks like an objective short following yesterday’s breakdown below this yellow support line which also follows the recent breakdown below the white ascending price channel (complete with negative divergences in place at the recent highs). My first price target will be the primary uptrend line, which can be viewed on the 5-year daily chart below. T2 at 107.94, is placed just above the green horizontal support level (to help assure a fill). With all but the shortest-term trend indicators still on buy signals, I’d have to favor T1 at this time. However, the bearish divergences & extreme sentiment readings that have persisted from months are still in place and have only grown to even larger, potentially more bearish extremes. As such, my preferred target my very likely be extended to T2 should we begin to see some half-decent evidence that a correction in the broad markets is likely underway. Note: The static charts below were made before the market opened today. Click here to view the live 2-year daily chart of ORLY.
PRAA has recently broken below a textbook bearish rising wedge pattern, complete with negative divergences in place at the recent highs. Following the breakdown, PRAA (Portfolio Recovery Associates) made a backtest of the pattern from below and has since began moving impulsively lower, giving additional validation to the pattern. Although a reaction off the support zone (52.35-53.00) is likely, PRAA looks to offer an objective initial short entry here, bringing to a full position on a break below support. As such, PRAA will be added as an Active Short Trade at current levels. Stops should be commensurate with one’s preferred target (shown on this daily chart). The live, annotated chart can also be viewed by clicking here.
F (Ford Motor Co) could be shorted here following the recent breakdown below the bearish rising wedge pattern and will be added as an Active Short Trade. As prices currently sit just above support around the 16.55 area, one could also wait for a solid break below that level before initiating or adding to a short position. As of now, my sole profit target for this trade is 14.42 although one could also take full or partial profits at the top of the S2 (second support) level which comes in around 15.85-15.71. Daily chart shown here or click here to view the live chart.