PT (Portugal Telecom) is currently trading about 7% below the 0.95 support/resistance level, at the tail-end of the suggested stop range for those targeting T1 at 1.14. However, a decent support level lies just below at .84-.86 for those targeting one or more of the higher "unofficial" targets or willing to give their position a little more room. PT will be considered stopped out & moved to the Completed Trades category on any move below 0.84.
Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. e.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.
PT (Portugal Telecom) is currently backtesting the 0.95 former resistance, now support level. PT was a long trade idea on Friday on the breakout above the 0.95 resistance level. That break of horizontal resistance followed a break above a bullish falling wedge pattern as shown on the previous & updated (below) 60 minute & daily time frames.
To reiterate, this is an aggressive trade. Although multiple price targets are shown on these charts, my current preferred & the sole official profit target remains 1.14 (about a 20% gain from current levels). Once could either place a very tight stop slightly below the 0.95 support level (e.g.- .92 or .93) or use the suggested stop parameter of 6-7% below entry.
note: On the previously posted daily chart, the 0.95 support line was inadvertently placed a few cent below the actual level. The correct adjustment to that line has been made to the daily chart above which can also be viewed via the live chart link below. The percentage gain measurements to each target/resistance level were also adjusted accordingly.
QEP was one of several long-side trade ideas mentioned on Jan 13th. The horizontal resistance levels on this daily chart are possible longer-term swing targets, should oil prices reverse trend soon. However, the official near-term bounce target is currently the 22.50-22.85 resistance zone (see 2-hour chart).
QEP has been consolidating between the 20.50 & 18.30ish range. A break above the top of the trading range will likely propel QEP towards the resistance zone at 22.50-22.85, about 11-13% above current levels. Also note that QEP recently broke above a downtrend line/bullish falling wedge pattern although the breakout has yet to be confirmed with above average volume (breakouts accompanied by at least 1.5x the average trading volume are much more likely to stick). Of course, until/unless oil starts moving higher, I wouldn't expect any of the current energy stock trade ideas to go very far. With that being said, the similarities between QEP's recent trading range & the trading range recently pointed out on the USO 60-minute chart are not coincide and the ultimate resolution (up or down) from these ranges are likely to mirror each other although I do believe that trading select energy stocks with the most bullish patterns offers much larger profit potential (percentage-wise).
Although this trade idea was first mentioned 10-days ago, I have yet to list an official price target although I will most likely place the suggested bounce target just below the bottom of the 22.50-22.85 resistance zone.
USO (crude oil ETF, along with UCO, the 2x long crude ETF) is current trading at the bottom of the recent trading range although we now have double positive divergence (back to back bullish divergences) on the 60 minute time frame. Those divergences would still remain intact should USO make a relatively brief & shallow break below the recent trading zone. In fact, at this point I would almost expect a brief breakdown which could serve as a bear-trap & flush-out move.
As the UCO trade is taking longer to play out than expected with crude trading sideways in this highlighted consolidation zone since Jan 6th, my focus going forward will be on the USO (1x crude ETF) chart, which does a better job of tracking crude prices over time as prices are not prone to the same decay as the leveraged ETFs.
The most likely scenarios are illustrated in this updated 60 minute USO chart; either a move higher from around the bottom of the zone or a temporary break below before prices reverse. Any move much below the 16.00 level would most likely open the door to a new wave of selling.
Just to clarify, I still only favor a short-term swing trade on crude at this time with a slight possibility of a longer-term bottom. I just don't see enough technical evidence on the daily & weekly time frames to make a solid case for a lasting bottom yet. My ideal longer-term scenario would be to get the decent counter-trend bounce that I am looking for (19.80-20.55ish in USO), followed by a thrust down to a new lower low, while forming higher highs on most of the price & momentum indicators (i.e. - a divergent low on the daily chart).
With that being said, recent volume patterns in USO look highly capitulatory and a lasting bottom in crude may possibly be close at hand. As for a longer-term swing trade in crude oil and/or the energy stocks, we'll just have to continue to monitor the charts for any bullish developments.
I have decided to set the official price target on yesterday's PT (Portugal Telecom) Long at 1.14 (T1) with additional potential targets, T2 at 1.25 & T3 at 1.52, to be added depending on how PT trades going forward.
T1, the current preferred & final target, is set slightly below the top of the Dec 29th gap although an optional, higher probability exit point would be to set your sell limit order slightly below the bottom of that gap which comes in at 1.13.
Another option that might help extend gains on this trade would be to set a relatively tight trailing stop (~0.05) below PT once/if the stock approaches the 1.13 level while targeting either T2 or T3. Unless stated otherwise beforehand, PT will be considered a completed trade if/when T1 is hit.
PT (Portugal Telecom) will trigger an AGGRESSIVE long entry on a break above 0.95. I have yet to determine my exact price targets but plan to follow up with some suggested target levels assuming the stock makes a sustained break above the 0.95 resistance level. However, the 60 minute chart below shows some potential near-term targets (actual resistance levels shown, best to set sell limits slightly below) and the two gray horizontal lines on the daily chart also represent some possible targets. As of now, my focus is on the 60 minute chart, currently targeting that gap that runs from about 1.13 to 1.17, which would translate to about a 20% gain if hit. As such, a stop of around 6-7% would make sense for those targeting that area. 60 minute & daily charts below:
A few days ago, I posted here about flexible vs. rigid trading plans. The previous (and only other) trade on PT was a long trade that was completed for a 28.4% gain back on January 17, 2013. Two days earlier, my analysis of the charts convinced me to revise down my final target from around the 6.70 level (T3) and make T2 (5.65) my final target. Just two days after that downward revision suggesting to book full profits if & when T2 (5.65) was hit, PT hit that final target. The very next day, Jan 18th, PT reached a high of 5.49 and immediately embarked on a plunge of over 86%, never looking back. Just another example of reacting to changes in the technical of a position and not becoming married to a trading plan that was put in place months early. Those previous trades on PT, as with all trade ideas on RSOTC, can be viewed by clicking on the "Tagged with: PT" link at the bottom right of this post or by using the "Select Ticker" drop-down box on the sidebar of the homepage.
NOTE: THE SITE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME UNUSUALLY LONG DELAYS IN UPLOADING IMAGES TODAY. I JUST NOTICED THAT PT IS NOW TRADING ABOVE THE TRIGGER PRICE OF 0.95 AS I TYPE, MAKING THIS BOTH A TRADE SETUP AND ACTIVE TRADE.
These are the latest 60 minute charts on both UCO (2x long crude oil ETF) and USO (1x long crude oil ETF). Based on my analysis of the charts, I still expect an decent oversold rally in crude oil from at or near current levels although in hindsight, I thought that the bounce would have already played out by this point and as such, should have opted to trade USO instead of the leveraged UCO, which has basically choppy around in a trading range since the original entry two weeks ago.
Regardless of the fact that crude prices did not immediately make a sustained rally towards the initial price targets following the breakout above the 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern, the sideways price action over the last couple of weeks could be due to the fact that crude is forming a base from which to launch decent rally up to my current preferred target of the 10.58 area (with a suggested sell limit placed slightly below). Any solid and sustained break above the bottom of this recent trading zone would be bearish & most likely open the door to a new wave of selling.
The 18.60 area has formed a decent resistance level over the last few weeks and as such, any solid break above that level is likely to be the catalyst for a relatively quick move towards the 19.80 resistance level (first target on USO) and quite possibly the 20.54 level after that (which is comparable to my 10.58 resistance level on UCO).