• ABG - Jan 28 201420140128
  • AGNC - Jan 24 201420140124
  • ALIAF - Mar 20 201420140320
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • AUY - Apr 16 201420140416
  • AVGO - Apr 04 201420140404
  • BC - Apr 14 201420140414
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • $CDNX - Apr 03 201420140403
  • COST - Jan 10 201420140110
  • CVX - Jan 13 201420140113
  • EGO - Mar 05 201420140305
  • EVR - Apr 11 201420140411
  • FCH - Apr 11 201420140411
  • GDX - Apr 08 201420140408
  • GLD - Mar 24 201420140324
  • GMCR - Dec 23 201320131223
  • GRA - Jan 27 201420140127
  • GS - Jan 14 201420140114
  • GTAT - Nov 05 201320131105
  • HAIN - Feb 07 201420140207
  • HIMX - Apr 14 201420140414
  • HL - Mar 06 201420140306
  • HMN - Apr 09 201420140409
  • HMY - Apr 11 201420140411
  • HON - Dec 11 201320131211
  • KGC - Mar 06 201420140306
  • KOL - Mar 06 201420140306
  • LL - Dec 10 201320131210
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • LUV - Apr 09 201420140409
  • MFC - Jan 29 201420140129
  • MIC - Jan 27 201420140127
  • NEM - Mar 26 201420140326
  • NFLX - Jan 23 201420140123
  • NLY - Feb 27 201420140227
  • NSL - Oct 02 201320131002
  • NTRS - Sep 18 201320130918
  • ODP - Mar 19 201420140319
  • ORLY - Dec 05 201320131205
  • P - Apr 07 201420140407
  • PAA - Aug 14 201320130814
  • PFE - Nov 06 201220121106
  • POWI - Apr 14 201420140414
  • PRAA - Feb 03 201420140203
  • QLGC - Mar 19 201420140319
  • RAD - Dec 19 201320131219
  • SIL - Mar 27 201420140327
  • $SILVER - Mar 27 201420140327
  • SLV - Sep 10 201320130910
  • SNDK - Apr 04 201420140404
  • SPB - Nov 01 201320131101
  • SSI - Jan 13 201420140113
  • TAN - Dec 03 201320131203
  • TASR - Mar 27 201420140327
  • TJX - Jan 24 201420140124
  • TNK - May 21 201320130521
  • VPRT - Mar 19 201420140319
  • WFC - Apr 09 201420140409
  • XOM - Jun 12 201320130612
  • XVX.TO - Apr 03 201420140403
  • YELP - Nov 25 201320131125
  • YUM - Oct 23 201320131023
  • Z - Oct 22 201320131022


Active Trades

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. e.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Apr 162014
 

AUY (Yamana Gold Inc) will be added as an Active Long Trade & Long-term Trade idea around current levels (8.10ish). As this is an attempt to catch a bottom in the stock which has now fallen over 60% from its peak just over 6 months ago, AUY should be considered an aggressive trade. That, coupled with the inherent extreme volatility in the gold mining stocks, favors a downward adjustment in position sizing on this trade (as little as 1/2 – 1/4 my typical position size).

What I like about AUY, other than the fact that I continue to believe the gold mining sector may still likely be in the early stages of a new bull market that began in late December, is how the stock has broken below this key weekly support line. This breakdown may likely prove to be a bear-trap (i.e.- a false breakdown), with prices moving sharply higher if it does not stick. It could take a week or so for prices to close back above the weekly support line and if so, a higher probability, more conservative entry (or add-on to an initial position taken here) would be on a weekly close back above that level (roughly 8.40). Another technical development supporting the bullish case is the fact that we have positive divergence either in place or forming on the weekly, daily & 60 minute time frames.

Once again this is a potential high risk/high reward long-term trade idea. With the first target (T1) 24% overhead and the final target (T3) about 55% higher, one must factor in the total dollar loss if the trade does not work out. Using a preferred 3:1 R/R ratio, that would allow for a stop about 8% lower if targeting T1 and about 18% lower if targeting T2. Of course tighter stops can be used but when trading the mining stocks, I find that trading a smaller position size to accommodate for more liberal stops significantly reduces the chances of being prematurely stopped out on trades that go on to hit their profit targets as the daily price swings in the mining stocks are unusually large.

 

Apr 142014
 

Based upon further review of the charts, I have made a slight adjustment to the profit target on the HIMX (Himax Technologies Inc) short trade. Although the actual support level comes in around 8.18, T1 has been changed from 8.20 to 8.30 in order to help increase the odds of a fill when covering this trade as the possibility of a powerful oversold bounce are rapidly increasing.

HIMX is trading down sharply today and is down about 30% since the last posted entry less than 3 weeks ago. Although I may still ad one or more additional downside targets to this trade, my preference will be to book full profits at T1 and possibly add HIMX back as a new short trade if we get a new objective short entry following a decent bounce off the 8.20ish level.

Click here to view the live daily chart of HIMX

HIMX daily April 14th

HIMX daily April 14th

Apr 142014
 

POWI looks to offer an objective short entry following the break below this beairsh rising wedge pattern. T2 is currently my preferred swing target with a suggested stop over 64.50 (lower if only targeting T1). Although my preference is to establish a short position here, an alternative entry would be on a possible bounce to backtest the wedge from below which is certainly a possibility although not my preferred scenario.

POWI daily April 14th

POWI daily April 14th

Apr 112014
 

FCH (Felcor Lodging Trust Inc) will be added as an Active Short Trade here on the break below this daily rising wedge pattern. Although I typically avoid late day Friday entries, I did take a starter position on the breakdown here. More conservative traders might wait to see some downside follow-thru on FCH next week.

Adding to the longer-term bearish case for this trade, FCH has recently made an over-extended run into key multi-year resistance as shown on the weekly chart below. As I wanted to get this trade idea out asap, I haven’t had time to clean these charts up yet but I do plan to follow-up with a link to a live daily chart which will also list a firm price target (or targets). As of now, I have the target zone that runs from around 7.30 – 7.50 as my sole profit target but again, that may be slightly revised if this trade begins to get some traction.

FCH daily April 11th

FCH daily April 11th

FCH weekly April 11th

FCH weekly April 11th

 

Apr 112014
 

HMN (Horace Mann Educators Corp) was posted as a Trade Setup on Wednesday of this week and went on to trigger a short entry yesterday on a move below 28.33. I’ve added the 200-day ema to this updated daily chart to illustrate how well that moving average has acted as support and resistance, defining the recent up & down trends in HMY. With prices currently sitting on the 200 ema, any solid break below will trigger the next sell signal in the stock and increase the odds of this short trade reaching the price targets.

HMN daily April 11th

HMN daily April 11th

Apr 112014
 

When trading individual stocks (usually my preference over trading the broad market such as SPY, ES mini-futures, etc..), I will typically align or modify my profit targets with the broad market. For example, I’ll use the EVR Active Short Trade as an actual example.  EVR was posted as a short entry at a price of 54.89 on April 3rd, listing two profit targets on the trade (T1 & T2). Although T2 remains my final swing target at this time, I have decided to book full profits on my EVR short at a price slightly above my first target of 48.75.  EVR hit a low of 48.79, just 4 cents above my target but being that the $NDX/QQQ, which I consider the leading index at this time and as such, I am putting a heavier weighting into my analysis than the $SPX/SPY, has hit my final near-term (60-120 minute) and first daily targets and as such, is likely to bounce, I have opted to reduce my overall short exposure.  In doing so, I look for my existing trades that have hit or are near a price target and then make a determination on whether to book partial or even full profits or to let the position continue to ride.

That decision is based on various factors including the technical posture of each position but a big weighting in my decision is what my expectations for the broad markets are. As stated earlier, the odds for a meaningful bounce are elevated at this time and as such, if a position, such as EVR has not yet hit the price target that I was focusing on when I entered the trade but is close enough, I may opt to book profits a little early as a bounce in the broad markets, i.e., a rising tide, is likely to lift all ships.  Even if my take on the broad market is wrong and prices continue to fall sharply below current levels, trading is all about weighing the potential risk vs. the potential reward. I’d rather not risk giving back some nice gains by holding out for higher profits with the markets becoming oversold on the near & intermediate-term time frames while at resistance with potential bullish divergences forming. To me, remaining aggressively short here does not offer a very favorable R/R.

EVR daily April 11th

EVR daily April 11th

On a final note, as the possibility that the markets do manage to slice through support and continue to move toward my additional downside targets, I have opted to place relatively tight trailing stop loss orders on many of my other short positions (vs. closing out the trades). The advantage of relatively tight trailing stops is that it allows you to “let your winners run” while also helping to lock in most of your profits, should the trade start moving against you.

Again, the decision to book profits or let a trade ride with stops in place is dependent on various factors such as my preferred target and the individual charts of each position. The most important thing when trading is to have a plan in place. This holds especially true when shorting as stocks usually fall much faster than they rise. I find that being flexible in your plan as far as booking profits earlier or even extending your price targets, depending on how the bigger picture (broad markets) is developing. The markets (charts) are dynamic, not static, and as such, a trader must constantly review & revise his/her game plan.

Apr 092014
 

WFC (Wells Fargo Corp) will be added as an Active Short Trade at the open tomorrow as prices have recently broken below this second sub-uptrend line. A longer term bearish case for the stock is also made on the weekly chart below. Price target levels are marked on the daily chart with the exact suggested buy-to-cover levels to follow. Suggested stop on a close above the recent high of 50.49.

Click here to view the live daily chart of WFC

WFC daily April 9th

WFC daily April 9th

WFC weekly April 9th

WFC weekly April 9th

 

Apr 092014
 

LUV (Southwest Airlines Co) looks to offer an objective short entry here around the 24.00 area as it backtests the recently broken bearish rising wedge pattern. The first price target, T1, is 20.32 with T2, my preferred & final target at 19.08.  The suggested stop for either target would be on a move above the 25 level.

Click here to view the live chart of LUV

LUV daily April 9th

LUV daily April 9th

Apr 092014
 

HMN (Horace Mann Educators Corp) will trigger a short entry on any move below today’s low of 28.33 (yellow minor uptrend line).  Price targets are listed on the daily chart below with T2 defined as a target zone ranging from 23.71-23.41. Suggest stops would be dependent on one’s preferred target(s) using an R/R of 3:1 or better.     Click here to view the live chart of HMN

HMN daily April 9th

HMN daily April 9th

 

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