• AGNC - Jan 24 201420140124
  • ALIAF - Mar 20 201420140320
  • ALK - Jul 24 201420140724
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • AON - Jul 25 201420140725
  • AUY - Apr 16 201420140416
  • BC - Apr 14 201420140414
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • BXS - Jul 22 201420140722
  • $CDNX - Apr 03 201420140403
  • COST - Jan 10 201420140110
  • CVX - Jan 13 201420140113
  • EGO - Jul 10 201420140710
  • EVR - May 07 201420140507
  • FISV - Jul 23 201420140723
  • GDX - Jun 24 201420140624
  • GDXJ - Jun 24 201420140624
  • GLD - Jun 23 201420140623
  • $GOLD - Jun 23 201420140623
  • GS - Jan 14 201420140114
  • HL - Mar 06 201420140306
  • HMN - Apr 11 201420140411
  • HMY - Mar 26 201420140326
  • HSNI - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HSY - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KBE - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KGC - Mar 06 201420140306
  • KRE - Jul 15 201420140715
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • NEM - Mar 26 201420140326
  • NLY - Feb 27 201420140227
  • NSL - Oct 02 201320131002
  • PFE - Nov 06 201220121106
  • PNC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • PWE - May 29 201420140529
  • SIL - Jun 06 201420140606
  • $SILVER - Jun 19 201420140619
  • SLV - Jun 19 201420140619
  • TASR - Jun 02 201420140602
  • TJX - Jul 02 201420140702
  • VHI - Jul 22 201420140722
  • XHB - May 06 201420140506
  • XVX.TO - Apr 03 201420140403


Active Trades

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. e.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Jul 282014
 

CORN (Corn ETF) offers a somewhat aggressive entry here on the break above this 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern. CORN will also offer a second objective entry or add-on to an existing position taken here if & when prices move solidly (5 cents+) above the top of the July 21st gap (26.67). I refer to this current entry as somewhat aggressive for two reasons: First, that July 21st sizable gap is not too far overhead. Gaps, particularly large gaps, often act as support & resistance, especially on the initial tests of those gaps following their creation. Therefore, taking a long-side breakout in relatively close proximity to resistance may limit the upside potential on this trade, should prices ultimately fail to surmount the 26.67 level.

The other reason that an entry here is somewhat aggressive is due to the fact that CORN might go on to backtest this 60 minute falling wedge at lower levels. As the weekly chart below highlights, $CORN (spot corn price) has been in a very powerful downtrend (actually, a third reason this is an aggressive entry) and is currently trading in what I call No-man’s Land, which is when a stock is trading in an area well above & well below any decent support and resistance levels. When trading these “catch a falling knife” trades, where a stock is in free-fall mode yet I believe a powerful trend reversal is imminent, I prefer the stock to be approaching a key support level on the weekly chart while setting up in a bullish chart formation on the daily and/or intraday charts. In the case of $CORN, the next solid support level (340ish) is about 8% below current levels.

With that being said, I still see enough potential for a possible trend reversal from current levels to initiate a starter position in CORN (CORN ETF). An ideal scenario in the upcoming days would be a gap above the top of the July 21st gap (26.67), to put in place an Island Cluster Reversal bottom, with the “island cluster” being the group of candlesticks that were formed over the last week or so. That would be a very bullish technical event & one in which I would bring CORN to a fully position. As of now, my plan is to establish a partial position on the breakout of this 60 minute falling wedge, adding if and only if price move above the top of that July 21st gap (by at least 5 cents, to help avoid a false breakout). I plan to use a stop below 25.60 in case $CORN does want to go on to test that 340 weekly support level.

CORN is being added a both a typically swing trade entry & setup as well as a Long-Term Trade Idea & Setup, as this trade is based largely off the weekly time frame and has the potential to morph into a long-term trend trade with additional targets likely to be added, should we get some decent technical evidence of a likely trend reversal in the upcoming weeks. Long-term traders & investors might consider a wider stop that that suggested above for typical swing traders. A stop somewhat below the 340 level on the $CORN weekly chart would still provide an attractive R/R if target the top of the R2 zone which comes in around 550.

Jul 242014
 
ALK daily July 24th

ALK daily July 24th

ALK (Alaska Air Group) offers an objective short entry on this break below the multi-year uptrend line. A suggested stop over 48.30 is based on the current sole profit target of 42.20 (additional targets may be added).

The notes on the chart states an entry on a break below 46.80 or the trendline. ALK did go on to break below both levels during the time that it took to annotated & upload the chart as well as composing this post. Therefore, ALK will be posted directly as an Active Trade although it still offers an objective entry at this time.

Click here the view the live, annotated chart of ALK

Jul 232014
 
FISV daily July 22nd

FISV daily July 22nd

FISV will be added as an aggressive short entry here around the 62.40 level (current price is 62.42 as I type) near the top of this wedge pattern as well as a Trade Setup for a more conventional entry or add-on to an existing position if/when prices break below the bottom of the pattern (primary uptrend line). Suggested stop for this aggressive entry above 64.00. My plan is to take a partial position here, only bringing to a full position if & when prices break below the pattern.

Note: FISV is schedule to report earnings after the close next Tuesday, July 29th. One more reason for more conservative or conventional swing traders to wait for a confirmed break below the wedge pattern before establishing a position.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of FISV

 

Jul 222014
 

The VHI (Valhi Inc) Active Long Trade appears to be breaking out of a bull flag continuation pattern today. VHI triggered a long entry on a break above the 5.50 resistance level on June 25th & is currently trading about 28% above that level after gaining about 40% before pulling back. That pullback, which was greatly needed in order to work off the extreme near-term overbought conditions, resulted in prices moving gradually lower on diminishing volume, which is what you want to see during a pullback or consolidation within a bullish trend. That pullback formed what appears to be a bull flag continuation pattern and today prices have broken above the pattern and have been building on those gains so far. The previous & updated 60 minute charts are posted below but the official profit targets remain as previous posted on the daily chart (click the VHI symbol tag at the bottom of this post to view all prior notes & charts on this trade).

I will say that I would prefer to see a considerable expansion of volume on the breakout of this pattern which so far, is not the case. However, price action comes first in my book, volume second, so for now I’m watching to see if VHI can take out the recent highs of 7.63 put in a place about two weeks ago. Such a move, especially if we start to see an increase in volume as the stock rises, would increase the odds of VHI moving up to at least the 8.10 resistance area, if not all the way to the 10.20ish area, which is about where the bull flag pattern projects to. As stated earlier, this is an very aggressive trade so as always, DYODD and consider adjusting position sizing to account for the above average risk & return potential.

Jul 222014
 
BXS daily July 22nd

BXS daily July 22nd

The BXS (Bancorpsouth Inc.) short trade has broken below the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern, thereby triggering the second entry or add-on. BXS was first posted as a Short Trade Setup on Thursday and triggered an entry later that day, with prices breaking below the primary uptrend line. This trade also listed a second entry or add-on criteria of a breakdown below the neckline of the H&S  topping pattern which occurred via a large gap down today.

Prices overshot the neckline by quite a bit immediately following the open today and have since snapped back somewhat & are trading right on the neckline as I type. Therefore, best to wait for the next move below the NL, below the 21.85 area to be safe, before adding to or initiating a new position if not done so already. Also note that the suggested buy-to-cover level for the targets have been added to the bottom right quadrant of this updated chart.

Click here to view the live, annotated chart of BXS

Jul 212014
 
KBE daily July 21st

KBE daily July 21st

Nearly identical to the recent KRE (regional banking sector ETF) short trade idea, the KBE (KBW Bank ETF) has two distinct but not unrelated bearish pattern formations: The blue lines show a breakdown & backtest of the primary uptrend line/bearish rising wedge pattern (complete with a divergent top) while the black annotations show a Head & Shoulders topping pattern with prices currently forming the right shoulder.

The fact that all of the recent short trade ideas are financial stocks (all regional banks plus one REIT) coupled with the warning signs that I’ve been pointing out in the credit markets is most likely not a coincidence. Although I only posted the recent bank & REIT short trade ideas based on their bearish technical patterns, if there are problems brewing in the credit markets, many of the financial related stocks (banks, brokers, REITs, insurance co’s, credit card companies, etc…) will most likely come under selling pressure.

I still plan to add a few more individual regional banks as short trade ideas although I’m still narrowing down my short-list of the most attractive names in the sector. While I’ve been focusing on the regional banking sector, the banking sector as a whole, including the some of the mega-cap TBTF institutions, are starting to look precarious from a technical perspective. As such, I’m going to go ahead and add KBE as an Active Short Trade at current levels with a sole profit target of 27.60 and a suggested stop above 34.00, which is the top of the right shoulder on this potential H&S pattern.

As with the recent KRE (Regional Bank ETF) short, this is only a potential H&S pattern as the right shoulder has yet to be fully formed. Therefore, more conservative or conventional traders might wait to see prices break below the neckline, assuming that the pattern fully develops. Although KBE holds multinational, mega-cap banks in addition to regional banks, the charts of KRE & KBE are nearly identical as there is a large overlap of holdings. Keep this in mind regarding portfolio or position diversification if already short KRE one or more of the regional banking stocks.

On a final note, the popular XLF (Financial Sector ETF) is also on my radar as one of the more promising swing-short candidates. I haven’t pulled the trigger yet but there are several large financial companies, in fact many of the largest components of the XLF, including banks, credit card companies, insurance companies, & even the almighty BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway cl.B) that although not ready yet, may be setting up as potentially lucrative swing-short trades.

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