• AGNC - Jan 24 201420140124
  • ALIAF - Mar 20 201420140320
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • AUY - Apr 16 201420140416
  • BC - Apr 14 201420140414
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • BXS - Jul 22 201420140722
  • $CDNX - Apr 03 201420140403
  • COST - Jan 10 201420140110
  • CSGP - Jul 16 201420140716
  • CVX - Jan 13 201420140113
  • EGO - Jul 10 201420140710
  • EVR - May 07 201420140507
  • GDX - Jun 24 201420140624
  • GDXJ - Jun 24 201420140624
  • GLD - Jun 23 201420140623
  • $GOLD - Jun 23 201420140623
  • GS - Jan 14 201420140114
  • HL - Mar 06 201420140306
  • HMN - Apr 11 201420140411
  • HMY - Mar 26 201420140326
  • HSNI - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HSY - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KBE - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KGC - Mar 06 201420140306
  • KRE - Jul 15 201420140715
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • NEM - Mar 26 201420140326
  • NLY - Feb 27 201420140227
  • NSL - Oct 02 201320131002
  • PFE - Nov 06 201220121106
  • PNC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • PWE - May 29 201420140529
  • SIL - Jun 06 201420140606
  • $SILVER - Jun 19 201420140619
  • SLV - Jun 19 201420140619
  • TASR - Jun 02 201420140602
  • TJX - Jul 02 201420140702
  • VHI - Jul 22 201420140722
  • XHB - May 06 201420140506
  • XVX.TO - Apr 03 201420140403

Active Trades

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. e.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Jul 222014

The VHI (Valhi Inc) Active Long Trade appears to be breaking out of a bull flag continuation pattern today. VHI triggered a long entry on a break above the 5.50 resistance level on June 25th & is currently trading about 28% above that level after gaining about 40% before pulling back. That pullback, which was greatly needed in order to work off the extreme near-term overbought conditions, resulted in prices moving gradually lower on diminishing volume, which is what you want to see during a pullback or consolidation within a bullish trend. That pullback formed what appears to be a bull flag continuation pattern and today prices have broken above the pattern and have been building on those gains so far. The previous & updated 60 minute charts are posted below but the official profit targets remain as previous posted on the daily chart (click the VHI symbol tag at the bottom of this post to view all prior notes & charts on this trade).

I will say that I would prefer to see a considerable expansion of volume on the breakout of this pattern which so far, is not the case. However, price action comes first in my book, volume second, so for now I’m watching to see if VHI can take out the recent highs of 7.63 put in a place about two weeks ago. Such a move, especially if we start to see an increase in volume as the stock rises, would increase the odds of VHI moving up to at least the 8.10 resistance area, if not all the way to the 10.20ish area, which is about where the bull flag pattern projects to. As stated earlier, this is an very aggressive trade so as always, DYODD and consider adjusting position sizing to account for the above average risk & return potential.

Jul 222014
BXS daily July 22nd

BXS daily July 22nd

The BXS (Bancorpsouth Inc.) short trade has broken below the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern, thereby triggering the second entry or add-on. BXS was first posted as a Short Trade Setup on Thursday and triggered an entry later that day, with prices breaking below the primary uptrend line. This trade also listed a second entry or add-on criteria of a breakdown below the neckline of the H&S  topping pattern which occurred via a large gap down today.

Prices overshot the neckline by quite a bit immediately following the open today and have since snapped back somewhat & are trading right on the neckline as I type. Therefore, best to wait for the next move below the NL, below the 21.85 area to be safe, before adding to or initiating a new position if not done so already. Also note that the suggested buy-to-cover level for the targets have been added to the bottom right quadrant of this updated chart.

Click here to view the live, annotated chart of BXS

Jul 212014
KBE daily July 21st

KBE daily July 21st

Nearly identical to the recent KRE (regional banking sector ETF) short trade idea, the KBE (KBW Bank ETF) has two distinct but not unrelated bearish pattern formations: The blue lines show a breakdown & backtest of the primary uptrend line/bearish rising wedge pattern (complete with a divergent top) while the black annotations show a Head & Shoulders topping pattern with prices currently forming the right shoulder.

The fact that all of the recent short trade ideas are financial stocks (all regional banks plus one REIT) coupled with the warning signs that I’ve been pointing out in the credit markets is most likely not a coincidence. Although I only posted the recent bank & REIT short trade ideas based on their bearish technical patterns, if there are problems brewing in the credit markets, many of the financial related stocks (banks, brokers, REITs, insurance co’s, credit card companies, etc…) will most likely come under selling pressure.

I still plan to add a few more individual regional banks as short trade ideas although I’m still narrowing down my short-list of the most attractive names in the sector. While I’ve been focusing on the regional banking sector, the banking sector as a whole, including the some of the mega-cap TBTF institutions, are starting to look precarious from a technical perspective. As such, I’m going to go ahead and add KBE as an Active Short Trade at current levels with a sole profit target of 27.60 and a suggested stop above 34.00, which is the top of the right shoulder on this potential H&S pattern.

As with the recent KRE (Regional Bank ETF) short, this is only a potential H&S pattern as the right shoulder has yet to be fully formed. Therefore, more conservative or conventional traders might wait to see prices break below the neckline, assuming that the pattern fully develops. Although KBE holds multinational, mega-cap banks in addition to regional banks, the charts of KRE & KBE are nearly identical as there is a large overlap of holdings. Keep this in mind regarding portfolio or position diversification if already short KRE one or more of the regional banking stocks.

On a final note, the popular XLF (Financial Sector ETF) is also on my radar as one of the more promising swing-short candidates. I haven’t pulled the trigger yet but there are several large financial companies, in fact many of the largest components of the XLF, including banks, credit card companies, insurance companies, & even the almighty BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway cl.B) that although not ready yet, may be setting up as potentially lucrative swing-short trades.

Jul 212014

HSY (Hershey Foods Corp) will be added as a Active Short Trade here around the 93.85 level. HSY recent broke below this 5+ year bull market primary uptrend line with strong bearish divergences in place before the breakdown (weekly chart). HSY bounced on Friday & opened just below the bottom of last Wednesday’s gap today (see daily chart) which offers an objective short entry as that gap will likely act as resistance. For more conservative traders not willing to short until clear evidence of a trend reversal in the broad markets (which I think we will soon get), alternative short entries on HSY might also be made on any bounce back towards the 96 area (resistance) or a break below the 90.25ish area (support)… see daily chart below for both those levels/scenarios.

This trade is based primary off of the weekly time frame & should be considered a longer-term swing trade. Targets are listed on the weekly chart below with suggested stops using an R/R of 3:1 or better based on one’s preferred target and average entry price. Daily & weekly charts below.     Click here to view the live, annotated chart of HSY

Jul 172014
PNC daily July 17th

PNC daily July 17th

The PNC (PNC Financial Services Group) short trade setup posted yesterday triggered an entry today on a solid move below the 84.52 level. T1 at 78.20 remains the sole profit target for now but I’ve also added a potential target zone which comes in around the 72-73 area (with the exact suggested buy-to-cover level to be added if/when that target is officially extended).

click here to view the live, annotated chart of PNC

Additional notes: The BXS short setup posted earlier today has also triggered an entry by crossing below the uptrend line. KRE is one of the largest declining sectors today, trading down over 2x the losses of the SPY & QQQ on above average volume, so far a good sign that a right shoulder may be forming but still too early to say with confidence.

The SPY just kissed the bottom of the bearish rising wedge pattern shown here in the last update on Wednesday. The SPY may or may not need one more thrust up back inside the pattern but is starting to approach the point within the pattern where breakdowns typically occur. Therefore, any significant move below today’s lows on the SPY would signal a breakdown of the pattern & likely usher in additional selling.

Jul 162014
CSGP daily July 16th

CSGP daily July 16th

CSGP (Costar Group Inc) offers an objective short entry on this break below the intersecting uptrend line & 146ish horizontal support level.

T1 at 117.08 is currently the sole target with a suggested stop over 153.85 (based on a 3:1 R/R). A second target at 86.50 may be added depending on how this trade & the broad market play out going forward.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of CSGP

Jul 152014
KRE daily July 15th

KRE daily July 15th

In this previous post on the regional banking sector a few weeks ago, the case was made for a potential Head & Shoulders topping pattern forming on the KRE (Regional Banking ETF). I have continued to monitor both the KRE as well as some of the largest banks in the regional banking sector and feel confident enough to go ahead and establish an initial short position at this time. This is what I like to refer to as an “anticipatory” trade, meaning that I am shorting KRE in anticipation that the potential Head & Shoulder pattern will not only continue to develop & fully form but also go on to trigger an entry via a breakdown below the pattern (i.e.- prices move lower from here to complete a Right Shoulder & then go on to eventually break below the neckline and move considerably lower).

Initiating a short position around current levels should be considered an aggressive trade as not only is the position being establish without any clear breakout of a price pattern or “trigger”, as that won’t come until/unless prices break below the neckline, but with both the broad market as well as the regional banking sector clearly entrenched in both long-term & intermediate-term uptrends, a swing-trade entry here targeting my current preferred target around 32.00 or about a 21.5% drop, would be considered a counter-trend trade as well.

The basis for this aggressive entry is based on several factors including: the symmetry (so far) and volume/price patterns of the H&S pattern; the recent successful backtests of the primary uptrend line, which prices broke below in late April; as well as the fact that since the March 21st highs in KRE, prices appear to be in the early stages of a new (short-term) downtrend as they have so far made a lower low & a lower high.

In additional to the aggressive entry, KRE will also be added as a Short Trade Setup with an entry to be triggered upon a break below the neckline, should a fairly symmetrical right shoulder be fully formed, preferably on above average volume. There are also a handful of individual regional banks in my watch-lists at this time with increasing bearish technical developments which are not far from triggering objective short entries and may also be added as Short Setups soon as well.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of KRE