Long-Term Trades- Completed

The “Long-term Trades- Completed” category lists trade ideas from the Long-term Trades category that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Long-term Trades- Active category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Long-Term Trades- Completed category for future reference.

Dec 312013
 

gold price chartI started easing back out of vacation mode yesterday and spent some time combing through the charts, particularly gold & many individual mining stocks.  With $GOLD now within a hair of my preferred target (primary uptrend line) just in time for the new year, this looks like an objective time to begin scaling into to gold and select mining stocks as long-term trades with stops commensurate with one’s preferred target level(s).  I’ve added several additional gold & silver miners to the Live Chart Links page, many of which list clear buy levels such as a break over a well-defined downtrend line or horizontal resistance level.

Once again, I am viewing gold, silver and the related mining stocks as potential long-term trade/investment candidates at this time.  With gold still firmly entrenched in a bear market, it could very well continue lower for some time, possibly overshooting the long-term uptrend line by a fair margin (or more).  As such, my preferred method to gain exposure to the sector will be to use a shotgun approach, scaling in gradually into multiple names in the mining sector initially using relatively wide stops as my position sizes will be small (i.e.- smaller total dollar loss exposure) and my profit targets relative large (i.e.- stops inline with a 3:1 or better R/R to my preferred targets).

 

stock chart analysisAlong with several new mining stock setups, I have also added some additional charts to the Live Chart Links page such as the IBEX 35 Index (Spain), MUB (S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index ETF), JNK (Barclays High Yield Bond Index ETF) as well as a link to the US Treasury Yield Curve.  New charts will continue to be added to the Live Chart Links page going forward so be sure to check back from time to time.  Market commentary, new trade ideas and updates will start to continue as usual today and the new feature allowing email subscribers to select which categories to receive email alerts should be ready later today as well.

Finally, I just wanted to wish everyone a very happy & prosperous New Year!  May 2014 be your most prosperous trading year ever!

-Randy Phinney

Dec 242013
 

FRO 2-day 5FRO (Frontline Ltd ADR) has hit the final target (T2 at 3.90) for a 72.6% gain.  Consider booking full profits as this trade will now be considered completed and possibly added back later as a new long setup on a break above the 4.00 area, assuming the stock consolidates below that level before breaking out.  FRO was categorized as a Long-Term Trade Idea, which are trade or investment ideas that have the potential for significant returns over a longer-term period, typically several months or more.  FRO took just over 6 months to hit this final target, which is typical for a Long-Term Trade idea (vs. the more common Long & Trade Ideas on the site, which are swing trades with holding periods typically ranging from several days to several months.)

Dec 192013
 

The JO (iPath DJ UBS Coffee ETF) has hit the final target (T2 @ 22.92) for a 10.7% gain. Consider booking full profits and/or raising stops for those who plan to hold as a long-term trade.  The previous & updated 60 minute charts as well as the weekly charts of $COFFEE (spot coffee prices) below illustrate how using multiple time-frames can be used successfully to “catch a falling knife” as this trade was entered less than 2% from the bottom of a vicious bear market that chopped off about 2/3rd of the value of spot coffee prices.

Although it is still too early to declare with confidence that the bear market in coffee prices is over and that this is anything but a counter-trend bounce, the recent price & volume action as well as other bullish technicals highlighted on the $COFFEE weekly chart do help support such a case.  As stated in the original post on Nov 6th, the JO trade (as well as coffee futures for those preferring a pure play on coffee prices) still has the potential to morph into a longer-term swing or trend trade.  As previously stated, the 2nd target on the JO trade based off the 60 minute time frame was my final target for this trade and as such, the JO trade will now be moved to the Completed Trades category.  However, JO (and $COFFEE) will remain as Trade Setups in both the Long (typical swing trades) and Long-Term Trade categories.

Those who are longer-term bullish on coffee prices may therefore decide to hold some or all of their position here while raising stops to protect profits.  The next buy signal for both JO and/or coffee futures remains on a solid break or weekly close above the weekly falling wedge pattern on $COFFEE.  Waiting for prices to print a weekly close above the downtrend line helps to minimize the chances of chasing a false breakout but could also lead to a less-than-optimal entry should prices explode higher during the week following a breakout.  Therefore, each trader must decide whether to take an intra-week breakout or wait for a weekly close above a resistance level/buy-point when trading off the weekly charts.  Something that I will look for if taking a breakout of a weekly chart during the week would be for a breakout on above average volume (at least 1.5x the average volume for the last 60-90 days) as well as any other bullish price action, such as a bullish reversal candlestick pattern on the daily frame.

 

Dec 102013
 

The day before Thanksgiving, an update was made to the NLY (Annaly Capital Mgmt Inc) Growth & Income Trade.  As the stock was poised to likely print a second consecutive weekly close below the 10.50ish weekly support (the initial suggested stop criteria), I wanted to highlight some potentially bullish developments on the charts before I left town for the holiday for those who might want to give their position a little more room.  Since then, the stock did go on to break above the highlighted downtrend line, make a successful backtest and has begun to move impulsively higher over the last couple of trading sessions.  In addition to the price breakout, we also now have the confirmed bullish crossover on the MACD that I was looking for as confirmation to the positive divergence that was forming on the MACD.

Therefore, NLY still remains an active Growth & Income Trade idea and with a current dividend yield of approximately 14% in addition to a 20% price appreciation if the current (revised) 2nd price target is hit, this mREIT looks to offer a very attractive R/R as a long-term swing trade opportunity with a stop below the 9.65 area (or higher, based on one’s average cost and trading style).  For simplicity, I have updated the price targets to reflect an entry or add-on based on the most recent post.

NLY was originally posted as a long entry at a price 0f 10.68 back on Aug 19th and went on to gap above the 2nd price target of 12.12 for a 14.7% gain (at which point it was suggested to book partial profits and/or raise stops).  This most recent move below that key long-term support level could very well prove to be a final stage flush out move providing a lasting base from which to launch a more sustain, healthy advance in NLY.  Maybe, maybe not so make sure to set stops commensurate with your own risk tolerance/trading style if you already own or decide to take this trade.  I continue to prefer a scale-in strategy with most of the Growth & Income and commodity related trade ideas as these are bottoming plays.  Previous & updated daily charts shown below.  Click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NLY.

Dec 102013
 

ANH (Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp) is another mREIT setting up as both a typical short-term swing trade idea (based off the 60 minute time frame) as well as a longer-term, Growth & Income Trade Idea.  As with the AGNC setup posted yesterday (which went on to trigger an entry shortly after the post and continues to move higher today) ANH can be taken either on any intraday break above the bullish falling wedge pattern or on a daily close above, for longer-term traders who might prefer to wait for additional confirmation of a breakout to reduce the chance of getting caught in a whipsaw/false breakout.  With a current dividend yield of approximately 11% coupled with potentially bullish technicals on the 60 minute to daily (and even weekly) charts, ANH will be added as both a typical Long Trade Setup as well as a Long-term Trade/Growth & Income Trade idea.  Approximate target levels are shown on the charts below but I plan to study the charts in depth and may tweak those levels somewhat.  Stops TBD upon entry.  I will also work up a live chart & post a link asap.

Dec 092013
 

AGNC (American Capital Agency Corp) is one of the mREITs that I had mentioned on Friday that look promising from a longer-term perspective.  As such, AGNC will be added as a Long-term Trade Setup (also under the Growth & Income Trade ideas sub-category) with an entry to be triggered on a break above this 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern.  AGNC will also be added as a typical swing trade setup under the Long Trade Setups category as this 60 minute chart lists some near-term targets that have a good chance of being hit should price make a sustained break above the pattern.

With a dividend yield of roughly 16% and a potentially bullish longer-term chart, the targets for the Long-Term Trade will be based off the daily & weekly charts with the exact levels to be posted on a live chart asap.  The horizontal lines on this daily chart correspond with some likely long-term price targets but again, the exactly suggested profit target levels will follow later.  Regarding the entry criteria on this trade; shorter-term, more active traders might prefer a buy signal on any intraday breakout above the 60 minute falling wedge pattern while longer-term traders might wait for a 60 minute or even a daily close above the pattern before establishing an entry (in order to reduced the odds of a false breakout).  Stops TBD upon entry.

Dec 042013
 

I just wanted to highlight a few commodities that look interesting here, all of which were discussed under separate posts within the last month or so.  The first chart below is KOL (Market Vectors Coal ETF).  KOL is currently an Active Trade but may soon offer another objective entry or add-on to an existing position on a break above the previously highlighted resistance level, which also comes in around the 200 day ema.  Any solid break above that level would likely be the catalyst for a move to the first target level around 22.00.

KOL daily 12-4-13

Copper is also poised for a potential breakout as any solid move above this downtrend line would likely thrust prices to the 3.40 level.  Other than Copper futures contracts, one could use JJC (a copper index tracking ETF) as a proxy for trading a breakout in the metal.  If so, the $22.00 area Continue reading »

Nov 272013
 

For those still long NLY or considering a position in the stock, NLY (Annaly Capital Mgmt Inc) is once again trading below the 10.50ish weekly support level after closing below that level last week.  In the previous update, it was mentioned that one, especially two weekly closes below support would be bearish for the stock and that may very well prove to be the case.  However, from the bullish perspective, NLY is forming some potentially strong positive divergences as shown on the daily chart below.  In addition, the stock appears to be forming a hammer candlestick on the weekly chart (although things could change before the weekly stick is finalized at the close of trading on Friday).  Hammer candlesticks often form at the end of an extended downtrend and can signal a reversal in a stock.  Again, how we close the week is what matters when using weekly candlesticks in your analysis.  Additionally, a hammer would need to be followed by one or more bullish candlesticks in order to help confirm a potential reversal in the stock.  As such, NLY will remain an Active Long Trade for now.  If the stock holds up, a break above the steep downtrend line on the daily chart below could also signal an objective long entry or add-on.  There are several other trade ideas that need to be updated but I will be traveling today and out of town for the remainder of the week.  As such, I will not be able to post any additional trade ideas, market commentary or updates until I return later this weekend or first thing Monday.  For those that celebrate it, have happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday!

-Randy Phinney

 

Nov 182013
 

JO has hit the first profit target for a 4.1% gain.  T2 remains the final & preferred target at this time as the charts remain constructive.  Updated 60 minute chart along with the previous charts below:

Note:  Several additional trade ideas will be updated today as some, such as GMCR, have recently hit a profit target while others, such as JASO, were recently stopped out.  For archiving purposed, each trade will be updated under a separate post.  In order to reduce inbox clutter, email notifications on any the remaining trade updates today will not be sent out.

Nov 182013
 

ANR daily 4The ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) Active Long Trade has formed a bullish pennant continuation pattern around the T2 area.  An upside break will likely be the catalyst for a move towards the next target level.  NOTE:  A new price target (T3) at has been added at 8.97 with the previous 3rd & final target now T4.  Price targets are added to levels where the odds for a reaction (pullback and/or consolidation) are likely.  Shorter-term traders might prefer to book partial or full profits at one of the earlier targets while longer-term traders might prefer to hold out for the higher price targets.  Very active traders might use the various target levels to micro-manage their trades (e.g.- reverse from long to short as a target is hit, thereby booking profits on the long trade and going short for a quick pullback trade, assuming that the charts confirm a pullback is likely).  Updated daily chart:

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