After hitting T2 (yellow uptrend line) on Nov 13th, GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters) went on to make a counter-trend bounce back to resistance while forming a bearish rising wedge pattern on the 60 minute chart. A solid break or close below the rising wedge pattern will likely be the catalyst for a resumption of the downtrend & move towards T3. As such, GMCR will offer an objective add-on or new short entry with a suggested stop above the 78-80 area, depending on one’s preferred target (another tag of the yellow primary uptrend line or the final target, T3, at 53.15).
Completed Trades are trade ideas that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades Category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Active Trades category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Completed Trades category for future reference.
In updating the trade ideas today, the following stocks will be removed from the Active Trades category to the Completed Trades category in order to focus on the most attractive opportunities at this time. Many of these trades have already hit a profit target or remain profitable at this time while a few are slightly underwater at this time.
HOV- Although this trade is still profitable and may very well continue lower to hit one or both of its price targets, HOV has been locked in a frustrating trading range ever since the entry earlier this year. In order to focus on more promising trade ideas, HOV will be removed from the Active Trades category.
JPM- JPM is currently trading around 5.25% above the original entry which came on a break below the 14-month uptrend line back in mid-August. Just over a month later, on Sept 25th, JPM hit a low 50.06 vs. the first price target of 50.04. From there the stock bounced to recently make a marginal new high while putting in even more powerful negative divergences in place so as with so most other recent short trades, this one may very well go on to hit the second and final target of 46.58.
KBH- This home builder stock hit its first profit target about a month after the short entry was triggered back in late June and has since floundered around in a relatively tight trading range around that level, still profitable at this time. Like most other short trades being removed today, KBH very well may break down from the current trading range and move lower to hit the second and final target but will be removed in order to focus on trades with a more favorable R/R at this time.
KEX- KEX moved lower after entry but reversed about a point above its first target and has been backtesting the broken uptrend line from below since.
KO- KO is another short trade that is still profitable and continues to looks promising longer-term for those who wish to remain short. The short entry for KO was triggered on a break below the steep ascending channel on the daily chart back in late May. KO went on to drop about 13% from there, so far reversing just shy of the first target but is still profitable by nearly 7%.
LEN- As with the HOV & KBH trades mentioned above, LEN is another home builder stock which has already hit it’s first profit target and remains solidly profitable at this time. Two separate short entries were posted on LEN, giving the trade an average entry price of 38.22. LEN is current at about an 8% profit from that level after making it down about half-way to the 2nd target for a nearly 20% gain before reversing. As with the other home builders, LEN has chopped around in a trading range around the first target level for months now. As with the other builders, I believe that the additional target levels will likely be hit over time but I am removing LEN from the Active Trade category in order to focus on trade currently offering clearly bearish technical patterns and better R/R profiles.
M- M (Macy’s) was most recently covered in the Nov 7th Short Trades Update video in which I mentioned a typo that I made on the final price target. M quickly hit the first profit target after the entry earlier this year and continue to fall reversing exactly on my final target line, however due to mix-up, I had incorrectly listed that target as 42.08 on the chart when it should have been about 15-20 cents higher. (The stock reverse at 42.18 and never looked back).
PWRD- PWRD hit the first profit target shortly after entry and still remains profitable. However, the stock has recently experienced some very volatile, sloppy price action which has muddled the charts somewhat. As such, PWRD will be moved to the Complete Trades category at this time.
SBH- This trade is essentially flat, trading less than 3% above the original entry price. Basically, the stock has chopped around in a frustrating trading range for what seems like forever and with out a clear read on the chart, SBH will be removed from the Active Trades category for a slight loss.
UNP- UNP was shorted at 156.00 in Sept and is currently trading at 160.72 or about 3% higher. As the technical picture is now somewhat obscure, UNP will be considered stopped out for a small loss and moved to the Completed Trades category.
The remaining Active Short Trades look fine at this time and updates will continue to be posted as important technical developments occur (targets hit, breaks above/below support/resistance, trendline backtests, etc…) As always, feel free to contact me if you any questions about these or any other trade ideas posted on the site. Also keep in mind that many of the trade ideas now have links to the live, annotated charts which are updated regularly, sometimes without a new post & static chart. The live chart links (for trades that have one) can be found under the most recent posts by selecting the ticker symbol from the “Posts By Ticker Symbol” drop-down menu on the right sidebar of the home page. This would be the preferred method when following a trade (vs. bookmarking the live chart link) as the link address to the live charts are occasionally changed or updated.
CME will trigger a short entry on a break below 77.10 which is both the primary uptrend line as well as the bottom of the support zone. Click here to view the live chart.
AMTD will trigger a short entry on a break below this bearish rising wedge patter. Stops will depend on one’s entry price and preferred target level(s). Click here to view the live chart.
There are a numerous attractive short setups forming in the investment brokerage sector. ETFC (E-Trade Financial Corp) will trigger a short entry on a break or daily close (for those preferring additional confirmation in order to reduce the odds of shorting a false breakdown). ETFC does have the potential for a longer-term swing short trade if we get a bearish cross of the 20 ema below the 50 ema. By my best guesstimation, I would say that bearish trend change signal would come around the time prices move down to the T1 area (in which case I would likely hold out for T3). Targets levels are shown on this chart with the exact suggested buy-to-cover levels to follow. Stops to be determined upon entry. Static daily chart shown or click here to view the live, annotated chart.
Over the last couple of months, I’ve been working on building out the new Live Chart Links page with links to numerous live, annotated chart of various US & global stock indices, various sectors, commodities, fixed income instruments and market leading stocks. I will continue to add new chart links to that page going forward so check back from time to time and feel free to contact me if you have any suggestions for a specific chart to be added or notice that any of the trendlines or comments on the charts need to be updated.
I’m also working towards a goal of providing live chart links to as many of the trade ideas as possible, especially for the more promising trades, such as this P (Pandora Media Inc) short trade that was first mentioned in the Nov 19th Social Media Stocks Video. The live chart for the P short trade can be viewed by clicking here. At some point in the future, links to live charts on all the trade ideas might be located together under the respective categories below the Trading & Investments Ideas master category found at the menu bar toward the top of the site. Currently, trade ideas with a live, annotated chart will include a link to the live chart under each recent post. Static posts are also provided for a quick visual reference as well as a useful educational resource by providing a pictorial history of each trade. As always, all posts associated with a specific stock, index, or ETF can easily be referenced by using the Posts By Ticker Symbol drop-down box on the sidebar located on the home page. For those following a particular trade, either bookmark the live chart link (or save the chart as your own if you subscribe to StockCharts.com, checking back for any modifications or updated to the live chart from time to time) or you may continue to reference the recent posts on the trade as discussed above, where the live chart link will remain at least as long as the trade is still active.
The LL (Lumber Liquidators Holdings) short trade has hit the first target of 91.25 for a gain of 18.2%. T2 at 71.72 remains my current final & preferred target although this trade may still be extended to the 49 area, should the trend indicators on the broad market start to roll over soon. Updated daily chart shown. Click here to view the live, annotated chart.
Admin note: A feature will soon be added to Right Side of the Chart allowing those subscribed to receive email notifications of new posts to select which specific categories they wish to receive email notifications on. For example, long-term swing traders and investors might choose to only receive notifications when a new Long-term Trade setup is posted while opting out of receiving notifications of completed trades, market analysis, etc… This new feature is expected to be rolled out within the next week.
The HSOL (Hanwha SolarOne Co) has hit the second & final target of 2.68 for a gain of 40.6% from entry (or more if shorted on the recently highlighted backtest). Consider booking full profits as the R/R no longer warrants remaining short at this level.
Although short trades remain counter-trend trades with the broad market solidly entrenched in an uptrend, HSOL (along the other recent short trades in the solar sector) is a good example of how technical analysis can be used to help identify profitable trading opportunities long or short, regardless of the overall trend. Updated daily chart shown below preceded by the previous daily charts for a quick visual history on the trade.
CSIQ (Canadian Solar Inc) will trigger a short entry on a break below this rising wedge pattern. T2 is the current final & preferred target although this trade could be extended to T3 at 10.85, depending on how the charts of CSIQ, TAN (solar sector etf) and the broad markets develop going forward.
I also plan to put together a video covering the solar stocks today and possibly some additional videos or written commentaries (with static charts) on the coal sector and growth & income trade ideas, specifically the mREITs (mortgage REITs), some of which still look promising from a longer-term perspective. My commentary on the broad markets remains light as there really haven’t been any new developments lately. The US equity markets continue to make a slow-grind higher despite bearish divergences and extreme sentiment readings that continue to build although most key European markets have recently started moving sharply lower at key technical junctures. Several of those charts can be viewed on the Live Chart Links page.
F (Ford Motor Co) could be shorted here following the recent breakdown below the bearish rising wedge pattern and will be added as an Active Short Trade. As prices currently sit just above support around the 16.55 area, one could also wait for a solid break below that level before initiating or adding to a short position. As of now, my sole profit target for this trade is 14.42 although one could also take full or partial profits at the top of the S2 (second support) level which comes in around 15.85-15.71. Daily chart shown here or click here to view the live chart.