• TRX - Dec 31 201320131231
  • SIL - Dec 31 201320131231
  • PAAS - Dec 31 201320131231
  • KGC - Dec 31 201320131231
  • HMY - Dec 31 201320131231
  • HL - Dec 31 201320131231
  • $GOLD - Dec 31 201320131231
  • GLD - Dec 31 201320131231
  • GDX - Dec 31 201320131231
  • EGO - Dec 31 201320131231
  • AEM - Dec 31 201320131231
  • FRO - Dec 24 201320131224
  • RNO - Dec 19 201320131219
  • JO - Dec 19 201320131219
  • $COFFEE - Dec 19 201320131219
  • GCAP - Dec 18 201320131218
  • YZC - Dec 11 201320131211
  • NLY - Dec 10 201320131210
  • ANH - Dec 10 201320131210
  • AAPL - Dec 10 201320131210
  • AGNC - Dec 09 201320131209
  • FSLR - Dec 06 201320131206
  • CLD - Dec 05 201320131205
  • $WTIC - Dec 04 201320131204
  • USO - Dec 04 201320131204
  • KOL - Dec 04 201320131204
  • $copper - Dec 04 201320131204
  • ZNGA - Nov 22 201320131122
  • XOM - Nov 21 201320131121
  • AVL - Nov 20 201320131120
  • NFLX - Nov 18 201320131118
  • ANR - Nov 18 201320131118
  • NSL - Nov 14 201320131114
  • NMO - Nov 14 201320131114
  • JPI - Nov 14 201320131114
  • FFC - Nov 14 201320131114
  • WLT - Nov 11 201320131111
  • TOPS - Nov 11 201320131111
  • NRP - Nov 11 201320131111
  • CLF - Nov 11 201320131111
  • BTU - Nov 11 201320131111
  • PWE - Nov 06 201320131106
  • MAKO - Sep 25 201320130925
  • TLT - Sep 24 201320130924
  • SSRI - Sep 17 201320130917
  • SLV - Sep 10 201320130910
  • TNP - Sep 02 201320130902
  • SKUL - Sep 02 201320130902
  • PEIX - Sep 02 201320130902
  • NIHD - Sep 02 201320130902
  • JOUT - Sep 02 201320130902
  • HPQ - Aug 22 201320130822
  • GFI - Aug 15 201320130815
  • SLW - Aug 13 201320130813
  • IAG - Jul 02 201320130702
  • AU - Jul 02 201320130702
  • ATML - Jun 04 201320130604
  • TNK - May 21 201320130521
  • DRYS - May 20 201320130520
  • XSD - May 19 201320130519
  • NM - Apr 21 201320130421
  • EXM - Apr 21 201320130421
  • THM - Apr 03 201320130403
  • BVN - Mar 28 201320130328
  • GG - Mar 18 201320130318
  • CVU - Mar 08 201320130308
  • AMKR - Feb 27 201320130227
  • AMD - Jan 25 201320130125
  • VXX - Jan 23 201320130123
  • PT - Jan 17 201320130117
  • $VIX - Jan 09 201320130109
  • DSX - Jan 04 201320130104
  • CS - Jan 04 201320130104


Completed Trades – Long

Completed Trades are trade ideas that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades Category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Active Trades category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Completed Trades category for future reference.

Dec 312013
 

gold price chartI started easing back out of vacation mode yesterday and spent some time combing through the charts, particularly gold & many individual mining stocks.  With $GOLD now within a hair of my preferred target (primary uptrend line) just in time for the new year, this looks like an objective time to begin scaling into to gold and select mining stocks as long-term trades with stops commensurate with one’s preferred target level(s).  I’ve added several additional gold & silver miners to the Live Chart Links page, many of which list clear buy levels such as a break over a well-defined downtrend line or horizontal resistance level.

Once again, I am viewing gold, silver and the related mining stocks as potential long-term trade/investment candidates at this time.  With gold still firmly entrenched in a bear market, it could very well continue lower for some time, possibly overshooting the long-term uptrend line by a fair margin (or more).  As such, my preferred method to gain exposure to the sector will be to use a shotgun approach, scaling in gradually into multiple names in the mining sector initially using relatively wide stops as my position sizes will be small (i.e.- smaller total dollar loss exposure) and my profit targets relative large (i.e.- stops inline with a 3:1 or better R/R to my preferred targets).

 

stock chart analysisAlong with several new mining stock setups, I have also added some additional charts to the Live Chart Links page such as the IBEX 35 Index (Spain), MUB (S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index ETF), JNK (Barclays High Yield Bond Index ETF) as well as a link to the US Treasury Yield Curve.  New charts will continue to be added to the Live Chart Links page going forward so be sure to check back from time to time.  Market commentary, new trade ideas and updates will start to continue as usual today and the new feature allowing email subscribers to select which categories to receive email alerts should be ready later today as well.

Finally, I just wanted to wish everyone a very happy & prosperous New Year!  May 2014 be your most prosperous trading year ever!

-Randy Phinney

Dec 242013
 

FRO 2-day 5FRO (Frontline Ltd ADR) has hit the final target (T2 at 3.90) for a 72.6% gain.  Consider booking full profits as this trade will now be considered completed and possibly added back later as a new long setup on a break above the 4.00 area, assuming the stock consolidates below that level before breaking out.  FRO was categorized as a Long-Term Trade Idea, which are trade or investment ideas that have the potential for significant returns over a longer-term period, typically several months or more.  FRO took just over 6 months to hit this final target, which is typical for a Long-Term Trade idea (vs. the more common Long & Trade Ideas on the site, which are swing trades with holding periods typically ranging from several days to several months.)

Dec 192013
 

The JO (iPath DJ UBS Coffee ETF) has hit the final target (T2 @ 22.92) for a 10.7% gain. Consider booking full profits and/or raising stops for those who plan to hold as a long-term trade.  The previous & updated 60 minute charts as well as the weekly charts of $COFFEE (spot coffee prices) below illustrate how using multiple time-frames can be used successfully to “catch a falling knife” as this trade was entered less than 2% from the bottom of a vicious bear market that chopped off about 2/3rd of the value of spot coffee prices.

Although it is still too early to declare with confidence that the bear market in coffee prices is over and that this is anything but a counter-trend bounce, the recent price & volume action as well as other bullish technicals highlighted on the $COFFEE weekly chart do help support such a case.  As stated in the original post on Nov 6th, the JO trade (as well as coffee futures for those preferring a pure play on coffee prices) still has the potential to morph into a longer-term swing or trend trade.  As previously stated, the 2nd target on the JO trade based off the 60 minute time frame was my final target for this trade and as such, the JO trade will now be moved to the Completed Trades category.  However, JO (and $COFFEE) will remain as Trade Setups in both the Long (typical swing trades) and Long-Term Trade categories.

Those who are longer-term bullish on coffee prices may therefore decide to hold some or all of their position here while raising stops to protect profits.  The next buy signal for both JO and/or coffee futures remains on a solid break or weekly close above the weekly falling wedge pattern on $COFFEE.  Waiting for prices to print a weekly close above the downtrend line helps to minimize the chances of chasing a false breakout but could also lead to a less-than-optimal entry should prices explode higher during the week following a breakout.  Therefore, each trader must decide whether to take an intra-week breakout or wait for a weekly close above a resistance level/buy-point when trading off the weekly charts.  Something that I will look for if taking a breakout of a weekly chart during the week would be for a breakout on above average volume (at least 1.5x the average volume for the last 60-90 days) as well as any other bullish price action, such as a bullish reversal candlestick pattern on the daily frame.

 

Dec 192013
 

The RNO Long Trade Setup posted last week has triggered an entry on a break above the descending channel.  I also wanted to point out that going forward, many of the static charts will list both the suggested target level as well as the actually resistance (for longs) or support (for shorts) level.  TC2000 just added a new feature to the latest beta version update which will automatically add the exact price level of a horizontal line.  As many of the price targets that I use are based off horizontal support or resistance levels, I find this to be a very useful feature.  As I have often stated, my suggested target levels (T1, T2, etc…) for long trades are typically set slightly below the actually resistance level in order to help assure a fill as a stock will occasionally reverse just shy of resistance, especially well watched levels.

(note: Although the previous post correctly referred to the pattern as a descending channel, the previous 60 minute chart posted below incorrectly listed the channel as a wedge pattern. However, the net effect of the breakout is essentially the same… i.e.- a breakout & likely trend reversal)

Dec 182013
 

GCAP (GAIN Capital Holdings Inc.) will be added as an AGGRESSIVE long entry here around 7.13 as the stock has plummeted over 50% to key uptrend line support (daily chart) while also at horizontal support with bullish divergences in place on the 2-hour chart.  GCAP successfully hit the final target for a 25.3% gain early this year on the previously long trade, with the stock going on to make a parabolic run which terminated a few months ago, followed by a very powerful reversion to the mean (i.e.- the primary uptrend line where GCAP is currently trading).  As overshoots of support are always a possibility when a stock is in a very powerful downtrend, I plan to keep my stop very tight on this trade (slightly below 7.00).  This gives the trade an exceptional R/R (about 20 cents downside to nearly 2.00 profit potential or nearly a 10:1 R/R).  However, I would also put the probability of being stopped out above average as this is one of the proverbial “trying to catch a falling knife” trades.  One alternative and slightly less aggressive entry would be to wait for a break above the minor downtrend line which defines that small bullish falling wedge pattern on the 2-hour chart below.

Dec 112013
 

YZC 12-11-13YZC (Yanzhou Coal Mining C0) has pulled back to support & could provide an objective long entry or add-on. Consider a stop below the 9.10 area (or higher, based on your average cost).  YZC was added as a Long Setup on Oct 21 with a buy trigger for only a partial position on a move over 10.75 (bringing to a full position if & when the downtrend line is cleared).  The stock triggered an entry on Nov 21 but reversed a few days later and has now fallen to a key support level.  Although one could add to an existing partial position here or establish a new entry, with a stop not far below, my preference is to hold off on adding any long exposure at this point as both the $RUT & XLK (and likely some other key sectors or indices) have broken those key uptrend lines highlighted earlier today.  Also keep in mind that KOL (the coal sector ETF) still remains below key resistance.  The updated daily chart of YZC (adjusted for dividends) shown or click here to view the live chart of YZC.

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