Mar 262013
 

As mentioned yesterday, my posts will be light this week as I spend time with my kids on their Spring Break.  I will keep an eye on the market and post anything that looks compelling but as of now, nothing has changed on my outlook or regarding my primary scenario.  I will say that I had expected the selling to have begun accelerating at this point, which other than some short term intraday dips answered almost immediately by basically equal rips, has not been the case.  However the market ($SPX) still remains below the 3/14-3/15 highs and more importantly, all the key indicators and oscillators have rolled over on the daily time frame (i.e.- bearish MACD crossovers; RSI & stochastics rolling over and crossing back below overbought levels, etc..) all of which are typically sell signals.  It also worth noting that most indicators and oscillators also look poised to rollover on the week time frames as well, which would be even more powerful and accurate trend change signals.  As my time is limited right now, I’m just going to cut and paste my reply to a question I received today on the LL short:

I wasn’t planning on posting much today but was about to update LL since it’s getting near that 10% +/- stop area.  I’m still giving my position some room but not a whole lot more.  Lumber futures have likely topped as well as LL.  However, the fact that LL rose so sharply back to new highs following that recent solid breakdown below the daily uptrend line is very odd and somewhat concerning.  Most likely a final short squeeze but it’s going to need to start rolling over soon, preferably by the beginning of next week.  I’ll try to post a chart soon as stock is trading at 70.82 right now after kissing 71.72 today and 10% above entry would be 71.36.  Do what you feel most comfortable with by I will probably wait to see a weekly (Friday) close well over the 71.36 before throwing in the towel.

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