Mar 062013
 

There are several reasons that I chose not to run an open blog or trading forum on Right Side of the Chart, at least in the initial stages of building the site.  However, I do enjoy discussing the markets and trading ideas, both those posted here as well as those shared by others.  I welcome comments, trade ideas, articles, questions, etc.. via the Contact section of the site located under the Resources tab on the top menu of the site.  Although I can’t always immediately reply to every message, I typically reply (via email) within a day or two.  Many of the improvements that have been made to the site have come from feedback from the users and just wanted to thank those who have passed along suggestions.

With that being said, I often use some of the questions regarding a specific trade or my thoughts on the market for the basis for a new post or update to an existing trade idea.  Today I’ve received multiple questions regarding my thoughts on some of the existing short trades and whether or not this might be a good time to add to a position.  Although I often point out that adding to a short position on a bounce to resistance (or a long trade on a pullback to support) is an objective area to add, as of right now, my preference is to sit tight and wait for some type of confirmation that my current market scenario might play out.  An example might be for prices to reverse soon, preferably on increased volume and impulsive selling.  Some type of bearish technical signal, such as a bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily, would also help add to the bearish case and increase my confidence in my current preferred scenario.  However, until such evidence and in light of the recent strong upside momentum, I’d rather wait for some half-decent confirmation of a possible near-term trend reversal before aggressively adding to my existing short positions, even if that means adding at less favorable prices than today.

Although I don’t strictly abide by this rule, many experienced traders will only add to a winning position (at less favorable prices than their original entry) and never average down on a losing trade.  Again, I don’t use that as a hard rule but I will only add to a position that is down if I believe that the R/R is very favorable at the time.  Right now, although I still believe that the next 10% move in the market is lower before higher, I can not state that with enough confident to aggressively add to any short positions.  As things can and often do change very quickly in the world of trading and investing, I am continually evaluating both the markets and my positions and will be prepared to make any adjustments as needed.

Mar 062013
 

Not much to update since the last post on the SPY & QQQ 60 minute charts/scenarios.  As mentioned yesterday, the former primary scenario was negated on the gap above resistance and the prior alternative scenario became the current primary scenario.  So far, prices have paused about where I had expected them to but until/unless we start to see prices reverse soon, ideally on increased volume and impulsive selling, my confidence on this scenario playing out is not high enough to aggressively add to any short positions or close any longs (that are shy of their profit targets).  Mainly just watching for now. Updated 60 minute SPY & QQQ charts:

Mar 062013
 

EGLE 4 hourEGLE is one of the shipping stocks that I’ve been watching recently but regrettably did not take or post the setup earlier, as the stock is up over 11% today.  However, I figured that the pattern is worth sharing as EGLE just broke out above this downtrend line (shown on this 4 hour chart) and could possibly offer an objective entry if it pulls back.  If so, I’ve marked a few overhead resistance levels, more of a resistance zone really, which would be the logical first target area(s).  I’ll just add this to the trade setups for now but I’ll keep an eye on it and post any updates if I see what appears to be an objective entry.

Mar 062013
 

NM daily 3Besides the miners (mentioned in the previous post) one of the sectors that will soon likely play a potentially powerful game of catch-up (assuming that the broad market continues to move higher over the next few weeks+) is the shipping index.  As of now, the only shipping trade idea on the site is the NM long trade, which triggered an entry on the break above this large triangle pattern a few weeks ago.  For those in the trade, which is currently up about 8% from entry (breakout), note that NM has now reached that previous reaction high from Nov 6th and may or may not pause or pullback on this first attempt at that level.  Regardless, the trade still looks good longer term and my current preferred target is T2.  I would also consider moving stops up to breakeven at this point, assuming an entry on or around the breakout level (3.80ish).

Mar 062013
 

There were two groups of stocks that I was considering adding as setups yesterday and still might (or might not) officially add them as trade ideas but as both sectors are catching a nice bid today, I figured that I might as well post some charts for anyone looking for some long-side trade ideas.  As I’ve been somewhat disengaged from trading this week as the market has been moving against most of my positions, I prefer to keep things light for now or at least until I see if my alternative scenario (market turns down soon) starts to play out or not.

GDX 60 minHere’s the first of the two sectors that I’m watching (gold stock and shipping stocks).  This GDX 60 minute chart shows prices moved up nicely today earlier today and appear to be pausing at the top of a bullish falling wedge pattern, complete with positive divergences in place on both the MACD & RSI.  If I make this an official trade idea, I will add the target levels but for now, those interested could just replicate the chart as those levels are clearly marked at the top of the those two large recent gaps.  There are also quite a few individual gold & silver stocks that I’m watching although I’m just not sure whether or not the miners are due one last shake-out move to a marginal new low or not.  Currently, I’m leaning that way, hence my hesitation on officially adding these as Active Trades if they were to break out soon although I will assign this post to the trade ideas category for now (with an official entry TBD).

Mar 062013
 

I’ve spent most of the morning reviewing the charts on all of the active trade ideas.  While all the active longs still look fine, the short trades is a mixed bag right now: Some with nice embedded gains, some close to entry/breakeven, some close to their suggested stop level and some that have already exceeded their previously suggested stop criteria & need to be removed from the Active Trades category (and into Completed Trades).  Those completed trades and their reason for removal are as follows: Continue reading »