Aug 292014

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM


Aug 282014

GFI (Gold Fields Ltd) was one of my top picks covered in the July 30th Gold & Gold Mining Sector video.  At the time, had pointed out the nice basing pattern that GFI had formed with the next buy signal to come on a break above the 4.38-4.40 resistance level, which GDI has clearly taken out this week. This gold mining stock has shown some nice relative strength lately having gained 16% since that video was posted less than a month ago while the gold mining sector (GDX) has just chopped around since then and is currently trading slightly below its July 30th close.

GFI was added as a Long-Term Trade setup when the video was published and following the breakout above the 4.40 resistance level, is now considered an Active Long-term Trade. However, despite the recent bullish price action in GFI, I did want to point out that GFI is now approaching a key long-term resistance level that comes in around the 4.70 area as shown on the weekly chart below. Any solid weekly close above that level will trigger the next long-term buy signal for an entry or add-on to an existing position in GFI. Of course, as always, it is imperative to manage your positions in the individual mining stocks along with the charts of both gold ($GOLD/GLD) & the gold mining sector ($HUI/GDX) as the success or failure of these trades, especially when positioning as long-term swing or trend trades, will largely depend on where gold prices are heading.

Bottom line: Although some gold & silver stocks have outperformed the mining sector and may trigger buy signals as they break out of bullish chart patterns or above key downtrend lines or resistance levels, gold & silver, although still looking bullish from a longer-term perspective, remain in somewhat precarious technical positions at this time and still have some work to do in the near-term in order to help solidify the case that a new bull market is underway. Therefore, make sure to use stops and position sizing commensurate with your own trading style & risk tolerance when trading the miners along with proper diversification, particularly if trading individual names vs. the diversified mining ETFs such as GDX, GDXJ, & SIL.

Aug 272014

It will be interesting to see if AAPL (Apple Inc) wows the public next month with the widely expected larger iPhones, this oversized iPad or any other tricks it may have up its sleeve because the chart on AAPL is starting to look ripe for a correction. Besides this steep rising wedge with bearish divergences building on both the RSI & MACD, as this chart clearly illustrates, such overbought clusters on the RSI, such as those recently put in place, have traditionally preceded significant corrections in the stock (dashed red arrows). Along with AAPL, several of the charts from the Live Charts page were updated last night including all of the Market Leading Stocks (AAPL, XOM & CVX) as well as the Sector ETF charts.

AAPL daily Aug 27th

AAPL daily Aug 27th

Aug 262014

So far, GLD is playing out as expected after moving lower to tag the bottom of the 4-hour triangle pattern followed by a reversal (so far) though there is still a lot of work to be done to strengthen the bullish case, namely a break above the triangle pattern. However, a move below Thursday’s low of 122.45 would certainly dampen the near-term bullish outlook for GLD. Previous & updated 4-hour charts of GLD below:

SLV broke gapped above the 60 minute downtrend line today & is currently backtesting from above. My preferred scenario has prices moving higher but the 18.50 level remains key support, should this breakout fail. Previous & updated 60 minute charts of SLV below:

Aug 252014

GLD is currently at the bottom of the trading range defined by the white shaded box. An upside break of the range (still favored) would be bullish while a downside break (certainly a possibility) would likely bring GLD to the 119.50ish support area. GDX is also sitting near the bottom of its respective trading range and will almost certainly follow the lead of GLD with an upside (favored) or downside resolution from the recent trading range.

Regarding the broad markets, I still think that we’ll probably only see marginal new highs before a meaningful reversal but as recently mentioned, I do not plan to add any more short exposure until we see some decent evidence of a reversal soon (e.g.- a bearish engulfing candlestick or some other type of semi-reliable technical evidence of a reversal). A good start would be to see the SPY close below Friday’s low of 198.74 sometime this week, especially if that were to happen later today (i.e.- a complete backfill on today’s gap & then some). My preference is to keep things light & avoid adding any new exposure, long or short, to all but the best looking breakouts or chart patterns at this time.

Aug 222014
VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

The VHI (Valhi Inc) long trade has now hit the second price target, T2 at 7.72, for a gain of 40.4%. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. As mentioned earlier, this recent move higher has been confirmed on volume with this most recent sharp move on increased volume actually starting the day before this bullish article from Zachs Equity Research was published. T4 remains the final target for now but again, consider at least raising stops to protect profits if holding out for T3 and/or T4. Longer-term traders might consider a stop below the lows put in earlier this month while more active traders might prefer more aggressive stops.

This 4-year, 2-day period chart shows the track record on VHI with 3 out of the 4 trades (including this one) being successful and all three producing gains well into the double-digits. The first short trade in early 2012 hit the 3rd & final target for a 41.3% gain in less than 3 months and reversed sharply upon reaching the final target level. The second & last trade on VHI, also a short trade, was initiated in early 2013 and hit the second target (T2) for a 19.7% gain and continued to fall about a third of the way to T3 before reversing.  In late May, VHI was added as a speculative/aggressive long trade which was stopped out in June. VHI was once again added as an aggressive long entry on the breakout above 5.50 in late June and still looks promising from a longer-term perspective although the stock is quite overbought at this time.

Aug 222014
SLV 60 minute Aug 22nd

SLV 60 minute Aug 22nd

With SLV (Silver ETF) having pulled back to nearly the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a break above this bullish falling wedge/contracting channel would likely signal the end of the near-term downtrend in silver prices. The white horizontal lines mark a few of the near-term targets.

Should prices continue much lower, SLV may test the critical 17.75ish support level that marks the mid-2013 & mid-2014 double bottom lows. Any break & sustained move below that level would have longer-term bearish implications for SLV. By sustained, I am referring to anything other than a relatively brief & shallow break below that support level which could serve as a bear-trap/flush-out move assuming prices were to regain the 17.75ish level shortly afterwards (a bullish event).

As of now, I favor a reversal in both GLD & SLV from at or near current levels but remain open to all possibilities as the precious metals are in a somewhat precarious technical position at this time.